Federal Reserve Interest Rate Policies and Personal Decision Making
Introduction
The last five years have shown that traditional monetary policies predicated on interest rate management by the Federal Reserve no longer deliver the economic growth they were once believed to. Keynesian economics has proved to not be as effective as once thought, which has led to the Federal Reserve choose alternative means to stimulate the economy and indirectly manage exchange rates (Hakkio, 1986). The uncertainty over interest rate polices has fortunately not led to increases in inflation, which has typically been the case in the past (Kopcke, 1988). The current economic conditions and the approaches the Federal Research are taking however are cause for concern, and from a personal standpoint many decisions are being evaluated more precisely.
Analysis of Personal Decisions
With a car that has nearly 100,000 miles on it and signs of wear, it is tempting to trade it in and purchase a new one. The many, many financing programs of the dealers are attractive, yet all contain escalation clauses and a few index to the Federal Reserve rates. This is troubling as the current economic policies don't provide a very clear cause-and-effect relationship between interest rates and economic growth. The risk of taking out any loan today is higher than in the past, especially if the loan structure is indexed to a broader measure of interest rate activity. Interest rates in many respects are barometers
Our economy is a machine that is ran by humans. A machine can only be as good as the person who makes it. This makes our economy susceptible to human error. A couple years ago the United States faced one of the greatest financial crisis since the Great Depression, which was the Great Recession. The Great Recession was a severe economic downturn that occurred in 2008 following the burst of the housing market. The government tried passing bills to see if anything would help it from becoming another Great Depression. Trying to aid the government was the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve went through a couple strategies in order to help the economy recover. The Federal Reserve provided three major strategies to start moving the economy in a better direction. The first strategy was primarily focused on the central bank’s role of the lender of last resort. The second strategy was meant to provide provision of liquidity directly to borrowers and investors in key credit markets. The last strategy was for the Federal Reserve to expand its open market operations to support the credit markets still working, as well as trying to push long term interest rates down. Since time has passed on since the Great Recession it has been a long road. In this essay we will take a time to reflect on these strategies to see how they helped.
When it comes to the supply of money, different actions are taken to assure stability in our country. To ensure we are keeping consistent with the loss in value of currency throughout the years, the Federal Reserve changes either the inflation or the interest rates so that prices will be able to balance the debt amount. With actions like such, there are purposes sought by the Federal Reserve Act set toward “the Board of Governors and the Federal Open Market Committee…: to promote… the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates” (Federal Reserve). These are a matter of acts under the monetary policy. However, today in America, we are still suffering from the continuous increase in our national debt, a problem that has been growing since the start of the new century.
Although business leaders may not have a crystal ball to help them plan for the future, they do have access to a wide range of Federal Reserve publications that can help identify recent and current trends and what these economists believe will take place in the coming months. Given the lingering effects of the Great Recession of 2008 on the American economy today, identifying the future economic outlook for America using this type of freely available information therefore represents a timely and valuable enterprise. To this end, this paper provides a review of relevant publications to identify the Federal Reserve's current assessment of economic activity and financial markets, its current view about inflation and various monetary tools that have been used to stabilize the economic and prices in recent years. Finally, an analysis of the economic outlook for the next 12- to 18-month period is followed by a summary of the research and important findings in the conclusion.
The discussion of whether the Federal Reserve should raise the federal funds rate is a highly contentious one. Members of the Federal Reserve (“Fed”) and academic economists disagree about what constitutes appropriate future macroeconomic policy for the Unites States. In the past, the Fed had been able to raise rates when the unemployment rate was under 5% and inflation was at a target of 2%. Enigmatically, since the Great Recession and despite a strengthening economy, year-over-year total inflation since 2008 has averaged only 1.4%—as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (“PCE”). Today, PCE inflation is at 1-1.5% and has continuously undershot the Fed’s inflation target of 2% three years in a row. (Evan 2015) In the six years since the bottom of the Great Recession the U.S. economy has made great strides in lowering the published unemployment rate from about 10% back down to about 5.5%. In light of this data, certain individuals believe that the Federal Reserve should move to increase the federal funds rate in 2015 because unemployment is near 5% and inflation should bounce back on its own (Derby 2015). However, this recommendation is misguided.
According to staff review of the financial situation for January 28-29, there are developments in emerging market economies. The Fed will continue to support Monetary economic situations over the intermeeting period, they were critically affected by Federal Reserve correspondences, to some degree better-than-anticipated economic information discharges, and advancements in developing market economies. On net, monetary conditions in the United States stayed strong of development in economic action and work: Equity costs is wrinkled a bit, longer-term investment rates declined, and the
“Is the current U.S. monetary policy too expansionary? Are interest rates too low or are they not low enough?”
This report discusses the association between the Federal Reserve System and U.S. Monetary Policy. It mentions that the government can finance war through money printing, debt, and raising taxes. It affirms that The Federal Reserve is not a government entity but an independent one. It supports that the Federal Reserve’s policies are the root cause of boom and bust cycles. It confirms that the FED’s money printing causes inflation and loss of wealth for United States citizens. It affirms that the government’s involvement in education through student loans has raised the cost of a college education. It confirms that the United States economy is in a housing bubble, the stock market bubble, bond market bubble, student loan bubble, dollar bubble, and consumer loan bubble. It supports the idea that the Federal Reserve does not raise interest rates because of the fear of deflating the bubbles they have created in recent years.
Eric Rosengren, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, and John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, have both been known as “doves” in their individual monetary policy opinions and votes over the last five years. Since the summer of 2015, there has been a notable change in Rosengren’s rhetoric in the pursuit of normalization to the point where Rosengren is now actively suggesting an increase in interest rates in the very near future in order to promote growth in the economy, and as of the FOMC meeting on September 21st, 2016, was one of three dissenting votes (out of ten) for keeping rates low. Rosengren supports his new change of face with factors that will be discussed at length in this paper such as the pace of growth, the up-sides to higher rates, and the danger lurking in a prolonged low-rate economy. In similar (but not identical) fashion, John Williams is turning to the belief that rate hikes will be necessary sooner, rather than later if the Fed wishes to continue to spur growth in the United States economy, as opposed to letting the economy overheat into recession. Williams supports this point with evidence similar to Rosengren involving the pace of growth, the upside to higher rates, and the danger lurking in a prolonged low-rate economy. Eric Rosengren’s recent flip provides an interesting vantage point on both camps in the Federal Reserve. By comparing and contrasting the rhetoric of Rosengren (a former dove) and Williams
The United States government continues to attempt to control the stability of the economy through the monetary policies management of the United States money supply, being economically strong in the world’s economy is an attribute that the government continue to strive to maintain. Although theories leading to the Federal Reserve are controversial basic knowledge is important. This paper explores the monetary policies tools of the open market operations, discount rates, and the required reserve ratio. In the context monetary policies will be identified, explained, and the usages noted. Also highlighted is how the monetary policies are used to balance unemployment and high inflation. Monetary Policies plays a vital role in the upholding
This briefing is designed to cover several key economic concepts which will help prepare you for your upcoming debate regarding the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve is the central banking institution of the United States of America. Commonly known as “the Fed”, the Federal Reserve plays an extremely important role in the economy of the USA, and by association, the world. Created in 1907 following a severe economic crisis, the Federal Reserve uses a variety of tools to promote growth, reduce instability, and prevent crises in the American economy. In general, the Federal Reserve accomplishes these goals by using their influence to maximize national employment, control inflation and interest rates, and increase national GDP. Before we discuss the Fed in any further depth, we will first review some of these basic economic concepts that are essential for understanding how it operates.
Money makes the world go round. We use it for just about anything, for example, paying bills, buying toys for the kids, getting the holiday ingredients for the family secret recipe, and we even use it as a gift for others. It adds value to some yet adds less to others. But what would happen if the supply of money was to suddenly decrease..or increase? Every bit of money you spend or receive is part of a complex organization known as the Federal Reserve System. The Federal Reserve System acts somewhat like the banks of all banks within the United States that controls our money supply by setting interest rates that can affect our economy. Determining how much you can buy or if you should buy now. The federal reserve should set a fixed interest
Over the past few years we have realized the impact that the Federal Government has on our economy, yet we never knew enough about the subject to understand why. While taking this Economics course it has brought so many things to our attention, especially since we see inflation, gas prices, unemployment and interest rates on the rise. It has given us a better understanding of the effect of the Government on the economy, the stock market, the interest rates, etc. Since the Federal Government has such a control over our Economy, we decided to tackle the subject of the Federal Reserve System and try to get a better understanding of the history, the structure, and the monetary policy of the power that it holds.
The internet has allowed the money market to operate 24 hours a day. It has been noted however that exchange rate volatility has increased,[v] which makes it more difficult for the government to set monetary policy.
The Federal Reserve went into action in response to the 2008 recession by rapidly reducing interest rates with the hopes of encouraging economic growth. The federal funds target rate was decreased to between zero and .25 percent. The results of the rate changes caused what is called “zero bound”, this reduced the effectiveness of monetary policy with the near non-existence of interest rates.
As interest rates bottomed out quickly after the onset of the recession, the Federal Reserve could no longer stimulate the economy with traditional and time-tested techniques. The controversial and unconventional method chosen by the Federal Reserve, and other central banks around the world, is known as “quantitative easing” (QE). QE functions by injecting large amounts of reserve capital into commercial banks with the hope that those banks will then be willing to lend the money at affordable interest rates. Ideally, the addition to economic activity affected by the influx of capital to banks should keep the value of the dollar relatively low, avoiding deflation and encouraging foreign investment by those wishing to take advantage of an affordable dollar. The cheaper dollar should also make American exports look more attractive to potential consumers in other countries. If interest rates stay low, and banks begin lending again, consumer and investor confidence should hopefully rise, leading to more spending and thus, economic growth.