11. A major source of revenue in Leyte is a state sales tax on certain types of goods and services. Data are compiled and the provincial assessor uses them to project future revenues for the state budget. One particular category of goods is classified as Retail Trade. Four years of quarterly data (in Php millions) for Tacloban City follow below. Identify the indices and develop a year 5 forecast of sales taxes. TII QUARTER YEAR I YEAR 2 YEAR 3 YEAR 4 218 225 234 250 2 247 254 265 283 3. 243 255 264 289 292 299 327 356
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- Suppose that the Perpetual Help College of Rizal had the following record of its growth of enrollment from 2011 -2020. Year Enrolment Year Enrolment 2011 5,200 2016 7,000 2012 5,500 2017 8,800 2013 6,000 2018 9,400 2014 6,500 2019 9,600 2015 6,800 2020 10,500 a) Develop a forecast of enrolment beginning 2014 to 2021 using 3-years moving average forecast model. b) Using weights of .50 for the most recent data, .30 to the second recent data, and .20 to the 3 months old data, develop a forecast beginning 2014 to 2021 using 3 years weighted moving average forecast…Sales of Volkswagen's popular Beetle have grown steadily at auto dealerships in Nevada during the past 5 years (see table below). Year Sales 1 455 2 510 3 520 4 570 584 a) Forecasted sales for year 6 using a 3-year moving average is sales (round your response to one decimal place). b) The MAD for a 3-year moving average based forecast is sales (round your response to one decimal place). c) The MSE for a 3-year moving average based forecast is sales (round your response to the nearest whole питber).Please show work in excel Sales for the past 12 months at Schumacher & Company’s U.S. Retail Division are given below. a) Use a three-month moving average to forecast sales for the months April through December. b) Use the exponential smoothing method to forecast sales for the months of February through December. Use alpha = 0.6, and assume that the forecast for January was 47. c) Compare the performance of these two methods for the months of April through December using the mean squared error (MSE) as the performance criterion. Which method would you recommend? MONTH SALES Jan 52 Feb 60 Mar 54 Apr 36 May 40 Jun 47 Jul 25 Aug 27 Sep 25 Oct 36 Nov 32 Dec 28
- 3. A large Portland manufacturing would like to forecast the monthly demand for a piece of pollutioncontrol equipment. Suppose the monthly sales figures for the past five months have been as follows:Month 1 2 3 4 5Actual Demand 14 17 20 21 25a. Make a forecast for 6th month using a three-period moving average (MA). What would be the forecastfor 6th month?b. The manager would like to use simple exponential smoothing to forecast. Use alpha = 0.25. Whatwould be the forecast for 6th month?c. Find the better forecast out of Moving Average and Simple Exponential SmoothingQuarter. 2018 2019 2020 1 66 73 85 2 106 119 130 3 140 165 205 Using the same data in table 4 82 91 100 a) Use the technique of least squares method, find the trend line b) Find the trend values c) Forecast the sales for 2021 second quarter. d) Plot the time series data and trend line.. How do you make a lost-horse forecast?
- Asvnch Problem - Statistical Forecasting Data Set – Eunice BC Fashion Monthly Sales, in million units. Year Total Sales Year Total Sales 2010 38 2016 43 2011 41 2017 40 2012 40 2018 45 2013 45 2019 47 2014 50 2020 42 2015 42 2021 48 Questions: a. Find the naïve forecast. b. Use the 3 years moving average forecast. c. Have a 5 years weighted moving average. d. Develop forecast using exponential smoothing with a = 0.2. e. Determine the trend line equation and present the forecast. f. Find the best forecast for year 2022. Note: Use the first 5 years as the training samples and the last 5 years as the forecasting samples. Solve it in Excel Sheet/Sheet with Equations as possible.Find four years weighted moving average? Forecast for 2019 with weights 1,4,2, ….. , Also find MAPE? (10 Year Cost 2013 18 2014 21 2015 18 2016 16 2017 20 2018 24 2019 ?Solved the problema) Use a 3-year moving average to forecast the sales ofVolkswagen Beetles in Nevada through year 6.b) What is the MAD? ~c) What is the MSE?
- 1 demand of cotton(intones) by Westham textile S.C are shown below 1 2 3. 4 6 7 8 year Actual 10 11 13 15 14 16 18 20 demand a) What is the nave forecast value of cotton for year 9? b) Compare a 5 year moving average to forecast demand for year 9? c) Using a weight of 50% for the most recent data, 30% of the next, and 20% of the oldest, forecast 3 years moving average demand of cotton in year 9? d) Forecast the demand of cotton for year 9 using exponential smoothing(a=0.2), if the actual demand in year 8 is 22. 00The following table shows the quarterly sales (RM'000) for Afeef Café for the past 3 years. Quarter Year 2 3 4 2019 11 17 10 18 2020 19 24 17 29 2021 23 38 31 33 Based on the above data. (c) Forecast the sales for the third quarter of 2022.9. For a specific model of a shoe brand, Carrefour (NIZWA) experienced a sales of 1000 units, 1100 units, 1250 units and 1500 units in the months of January, February, March and April. Furthermore, considering these sales figures related to some established trends, the Lulu managers assigned weights of 0.45, 0.25, 0.20 and 0.10 for these months respectively. a) Using the four-point moving average method, forecast the sales for the month of May. Also, compare it with the forecasted figures obtained using the weighted average method. b) Forecast the sale for the month of May if the weights are changed to 0.40, 0.30, 0.20 and 0.10 for the months of January, February, March and April. If the actual figures for the month of May comes out to be 1100, forecast the sales for the month of June using the exponential smoothing technique. The exponential smoothing constant is given as 0.20.