6. For classical decomposition, which moving average order produces smoother trend? A. MA 2 B. MA 3 C. MA 4 D. MA 5 7. If the series is very erratic or volatile, it is better to choose method for decomposition A. ADDITIVE B. MULTIPLICATIVE C. QUOTIENT 8. The smaller the the better and more acceptable your forecast model compared to other models. This measure is the usual basis for model selection. A. RMSE B. R squared C. MAPE D. BIC
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- forecasts? 7. Contrast the use of MAD and MSE in evaluating forecasts. 8. What advantages as a forecasting tool does exponential smoc4. Relate cycles, seasonality and trends in time series forecasting. What is their relevance in such type of forecasting? 5. Illustrate one example/scenario when judgmental forecast is utilized.Explain the relationship that economic variables can have with businesscycles. These have both direction and timing. Give an example economicvariable of each combination of direction timing. Of these two attributes, ifyou had exclusive access to a reliable variable, which relationships wouldyou want this variable to have for forecasting purposes
- 5. Describe the process of “de-trending” in time series regression analysis. Why do weneed to “de-trend”? 6. Describe the nature of omitted variable bias as it relates to time series? In what casesdoes controlling for trend variables solve the omitted variable bias? 7. Event studies.a. Describe the six steps to conduct a financial event study.b. What is the relationship between the efficient capital market hypothesis and theuse of financial event studies for causal inference?Which of the following approaches can help you mitigate the challenges of poor forecasts? a. Obtain and use the best, most recent information available b. Always use simple forecasting techniques c. Build flexible operations d. Minimize inventory Oe. All of the above Of. a and c'only g. b and d only1. How is the judgmental forecasting executed? 2. How is judgmental forecasting relevant in making decisions? 3. Differentiate Weighted Moving Average Forecast from Smoothing Forecast? 4. Relate cycles, seasonality and trends in time series forecasting. What is their relevance in such type of forecasting? 5. Illustrate one example/scenario when judgmental forecast is utilized.
- Consider the following actual and forecast demandlevels for Big Mac hamburgers at a local McDonald’s restaurant:DAY ACTUAL DEMAND FORECAST DEMANDMonday 88 88Tuesday 72 88Wednesday 68 84Thursday 48 80FridayThe forecast for Monday was derived by observing Monday’sdemand level and setting Monday’s forecast level equal to this demand level. Subsequent forecasts were derived by using expo-nential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.25. Using this exponential smoothing method, what is the forecast for Big Macdemand for Friday?Question 19 Lot's say you run a simulation and figure out that your sample bs one of the likely sampies that could have come from a DGP of 0. What would that mean? • A That is a good sign. Our model is good and probably explains a lot of variation. • B This is a bad sign for our model because a DGP of 0 means there is no relationship between the explanatory and outcome variable. • C This does not mean anything for our model. We have to run supernova to find out about how good our model is. • Dit depends on what our b Type Markdown and LaTeX: a Question 20 14 MacBook ProMr. Geppetto uses exponential smoothing to predict revenue in his wood carving business. He uses a weight of = .4 for the naïve forecast and (1-) = .6 for the past forecast. What revenue did he predict for March using the data below? MONTH REVENUE FORECAST Nov 100 100 Dec 90 100 Jan 115 ---- Feb 110 ---- MARCH ? ?
- In Probit and Logit models which of the following is true: а. Coefficients can be interpreted? b. Marginal effects have no interpretation? С. Coefficients are used to calculate probabilities? Marginal effects are used to calculate probabilities? d. Estimates are obtained by minimising the residual sum of squares? е.3. Write the theoretical model speciation of a logit model?Which type of correlation does the scatter diagram show? A. Weak negative correlation B. Strong positive correlation C. Strong negative correlation D. Weak positive correlation O E. No correlation O O O O