70 b. Mаximin? c. Laplace? d. Minimax regret? uly the ualysis NEXT YEAR'S DEMAND Alternative Low High Do nothing $50* $60 Expand 20 80 Subcontract 40 *Profit in $ thousands. 2. Refer to Problem 1. Suppose after a certain amount of discussion, the contractor is able to sub- %3D %3D tively assess the probabilities of low and high demand: P(low) = .3 and P(high) = .7. a. Determine the expected profit of each alternative. Which alternative is best? Why?
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(Use this information to answer only problem 1 part d and problem 2. A on an excel sheet to show formulas used to answer these two questions)
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- Suppose that the management of Theme Park, Inc., has decided that there is a.35 probability that the motel’s application will be approved.a. If management uses maximum expected monetary value as the decision criterion, which alternative should it choose?b. Represent this problem in the form of a decision tree.c. If management has been offered the option of a temporary lease while the town planning boardconsiders the motel’s application, would you advise management to sign the lease? The leasewill cost $24,000.Decision Under Uncertainty: Suppose the management at somaya Inc., is considering changing the size (capacity) of its manufacturing plant. Management has narrowed the decision to three choices. The plant's capacity will be (1) expanded by 20 percent, (2) maintained at the current capacity, or (3) reduced by 20 percent. The outcome of this decision depends crucially on how the economy performs during the upcoming year. Thus the performance of the economy is the "state of nature" in this decision problem. For each possible decision and state of nature, the managers determine the profit outcome, or payoff, shown in the payoff matrix in table 1. Table 1 The Payoff Matrix for somaya Inc. States of Nature Decision Recovery AED 15 million AED 6 million AED 2 million Stagnation Recession -AEĎ 2 million - AED 6 million Expand Plant Capacity of 20 % Maintain same Plant Capacity AED 4 million AED 1 million Reduce Plant Capacity of 20 % AED 1 million AED 1.5 million The managers do not know which…Given is a decision payoff table and a Sub Decision Payoff Table. Use Minimax Regret as an evaluation criterion to evaluate alternatives. Alternatives Low Future Demand Moderate Small Facility 49 48 Medium Facility 46 47 Large Facility -12 112 47 Alternatives Small Facility Medium Facility Large Facility Worst Regrets ? ? ? a) The worst regrets for alternative Small Facility is Blank 1 b) The worst regrets for alternative Medium Facility is Blank 2 c) The worst regrets for alternative Large Facility is Blank 3 d) The best course of action or decision by using Minimax Regret is to select Blank 4 facility 47 ཆེ་ཆེ་བེ་རྡོ High
- The new business venture, Best-In-World, has been manufacturing technology devices for over 2020 years and is considering adding a new technology device to its music line. They have an established reputation for building quality devices, but they are rather novice in the music industry. The Chief Innovation and Design Officer, Julie Naugle-Hall, is tasked with hiring a marketing firm to conduct a survey to determine the feasibility and demand for their new music device. The follow decision table illustrates the potential payoffs for a high demand, moderate demand and low demand for the new music device. The decision will be whether to start production on this new device in small scale, large scale or not at all.Decision Table State of Nature Alternatives High Demand Moderate Demand Low Demand Small-scale production 900,000900,000 300,000300,000 −400,000-400,000 Large-scale production 1,700,0001,700,000 700,000700,000 −1,000,000-1,000,000 No production 00 00 00…The new business venture, Best-In-World, has been manufacturing technology devices for over 2020 years and is considering adding a new technology device to its music line. They have an established reputation for building quality devices, but they are rather novice in the music industry. The Chief Innovation and Design Officer, Julie Naugle-Hall, is tasked with hiring a marketing firm to conduct a survey to determine the feasibility and demand for their new music device. The follow decision table illustrates the potential payoffs for a high demand, moderate demand and low demand for the new music device. The decision will be whether to start production on this new device in small scale, large scale or not at all.Decision Table State of Nature Alternatives High Demand Moderate Demand Low Demand Small-scale production 1,000,0001,000,000 300,000300,000 −200,000-200,000 Large-scale production 1,600,0001,600,000 700,000700,000 −1,000,000-1,000,000 No production 00 00 00…1. A builder has located a piece of property that she would like to buy and eventually build on. The land is currently zoned for four homes per acre, but she is planning to request new zoning. What she builds depends on approval of zoning requests and your analysis of this problem to advise her. With her input and your help, the decision process has been reduced to the following costs, alternatives, and probabilities: Cost of land: $2 million. Probability of rezoning: 0.60. If the land is rezoned, there will be additional costs for new roads, lighting, and so on of $1 million. If the land is rezoned, the contractor must decide whether to build a shopping center or 1,500 apartments that the tentative plan shows would be possible. If she builds a shopping center, there is a 70 percent chance that she can sell the shopping center to a large department store chain for $4 million over her construction cost, which excludes the land; and there is a 30 percent chance that she can sell it to an…
- ABC Company has several branches within the city. One of its branches is suffering from declining sales, andmanagement has a range of options:a. Shut down the branch and sell for P5Mb. Undertake a major renovationc. Undertake a cheaper renovationIn the past, 2/3 of renovation have achieved good results, while 1/3 achieved poor results. The major renovationwill cost P4M. Estimates of outcomes are as follows:a. Good results: P13.5M profitb. Poor results: P6.5M profitOn the other hand, there is a more economical renovation option that costs P2M. Estimates of outcomes areas follows:a. Good results: P8.5M profitb. Poor results: P 4M Required: Prepare a decision tree and recommend what action would be taken:a. Shut down the branch and sell for P5Mb. Undertake a major renovationc. Choose the economical optionManager Cafe "Blue Sky" is considering investing 2 (two) projects. Project X is an investment of $ 75,000 to replace a working but outdated cooling equipment. Project Y is a $ 150,000 investment to expand the dining facilities. Relevant cash flow data for the two projects over the expected 2 years are as follows: Project X Year 1 Year 2 Probability Cash Flow Probability Cash Flow 0.16 $0 0.08 $0 0.66 $50000 0.82 $50000 0.18 $100000 0.10 $100000 Project Y Year 1 Year 2 Probability Cash Flow Probability Cash Flow 0.50 $0 0.13 $0 0.50 $200000 0.74 $100000 0.13 $200000 Calculate: Expected value, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation for cash flows from each project. Compute: Risk-adjusted NPV for each project using a cost of capital of 15% for riskier projects, and 12% cost of capital for less risky projects. Which project is more…1. Decision Rules. A company is choosing a motorized mechanism for a new toy, a dancing ballerina (TippiToes) that is currently under development. Demand is uncertain. but the company is confident that demand will be: Light (25,000 units), Moderate (100,000 units) or Heavy (150,000) units. The payoff table for each mechanism (in $) is given below. Action: Choice of Mechanism Event Gears and Levers Spring Weights and Pulleys Pneumatic Light 25,000 -10,000 -125,000 -300,000 Moderate 400,000 440,000 400,000 300,000 Heavy 650,000 740,000 750,000 700,000 Questions: (1) Apply Maximax, Maximin, Minimax Regret, and EMV rules (assuming that the probability of Light demand is 0.1, Moderate demand is 0.7, and Heavy demand is 0.2) to decide what mechanism should the company choose? (2) What is the expected value of perfect information? (3) Draw a decision tree to solve this problem.
- Calculations: 1. You are valuing a 10-acre vacant lot with a septic system and a well on site. The size adjustment factor for 10 acres is 2.23. You have found two recent sales to use as comparables. -Sale 1 is 3.5 acres in size and has a septic system and a well on site. It sold for $200,000. The corresponding size adjustment factor for 3.5 acres is 1.57. -Sale 2 is 7 acres in size and sold for $225,000. However, it does not have a septic system or a well, which will cost $50,000 total to install. The corresponding size adjustment factor for 7 acres is 1.93. CALCULATE THE RANGE OF THE VALUE OF THE 10-ACRE VACANT LOT ADJUSTED FOR SIZE, ROUNDED TO THE NEAREST $1,000. SHOW YOUR WORK2 PAY OFF TABLE 3 4 New Bridge No New 5 Built Bridge 6 7 Alternative Capacity A 8. 14 for New Store 9. B 2 10 10 11 where S=small B= medium, C= large 12 13 1. Assume the payoffs represent peofits. Determine the alternative that would be chosen under each of these decision criteria: 14 15 а. Маximin 16 |b. Маximаx 17 c. Laplace 18 19 2. Using the information in the pay off table, develop a table of regrets, and then 20, Determine the alternative that would be chosen under minimax regret. 21 [b. Determline the expected value of perfect information using the regret table, assuming that the probability of anew bridge being built is .60 22 23 24 25 26 27Given is a decision payoff table and a Sub Decision Payoff Table. Use Minimax Regret as an evaluation criterion to evaluate alternatives. Future Demand Alternatives Low Moderate High Small Facility 31 18 15 Medium Facility 20 35 21 Large Facility -10 31 35 Alternatives Worst Regrets Small Facility ? Medium Facility ? Large Facility ? a) The worst regrets for alternative Small Facility is ( ) b) The worst regrets for alternative Medium Facility is ( ) c) The worst regrets for alternative Large Facility is ( ) d) The best course of action or decision by using Minimax Regret is to select ( ) facility