"A social choice function that always chooses some predetermined option x is strategy-proof." Select one: O True False True or False? "A social choice function that always chooses some predetermined option x violates Weak Pareto"." Select one: O True O False True or False? "A social choice function that always chooses some predetermined option x violates monotonicity." Select one: O True O False
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- [Insert your responses to the following questions: Analyze a business owner’s decision making regarding whether to enter a market. For example, what factors determined the driver’s entry and exit into the market in the simulation? Use economic models to support your analysis.]Given the following payoff table with the profits ($m), a firm might expect alternative investments (A, B, C) under different levels of interest rate. (attached) Assume now that the payoffs are costs answer the following: (a) Using an optimistic approach (maximax), which option would you choose? (b) Using a pessimistic approach (maximin), which option would you choose?(c) If you are a LaPlace decision maker, which option would you choose? (d) If you are a Hurwicz decision maker, which option would you choose with α = 0.2?(e) Using a minimax regret approach, which option would you choose?(f) Using the same probabilities of 0.35, 0.3, and 0.35 for possible interest levels 1, 2, 3 respectively, which decision alternative will minimise the expected cost? What is the expected annual cost associated with that recommendation? g) What is the most the firm should be willing to pay to obtain further (perfect) information (EVPI)? h) Use the alternative method to verify EVPIPareto criterion is a very useful criterion for social choices in many real-world situations since most policy changes produce both gainers and losers TRUE OR FALSE
- Using the following table, perform ALL FIVE of the techniques for Decision Making under Uncertainty: Maximax, Maximin, Hurwicz Realism (α = 0.7), LaPlace and Minimax Regret. Use the .50 for the probability of a Good Economy and .50 for the probability of a Poor Economy. You must show your work. STATE OF NATURE DECISION ALTERNATIVE GOOD ECONOMY POOR ECONOMY Sotck market 80,000 -20,000 Bonds 30,000 20,000 CDs 23,000 23,000Cathy is the manager of Fancy Bags, a store that sells designer purses. Cathy knows that the economy greatly affects her business. Therefore, she is developing alternative courses of action for each of the four possible economic outcomes that may occur over the next four to six years. In this situation, Cathy is following the garbage can model. generating contingency plans. engaging in satisficing. implementing a decision. making a programmed decision.2. Using the following table, perform ALL FIVE of the techniques for Decision Making under Uncertainty: Maximax, Maximin, Hurwicz Realism (α = 0.7), LaPlace and Minimax Regret. You must show your work for obtaining the points. PROFIT ($) STRONG MARKET FAIR MARKET POOR MARKET Large facility 550,000 110,000 -310,000 Medium-sized facility 300,00 129,000 -100,000 Small facility 200,000 100,000 -32,000 No facility 0 0 0
- You are planning to rent a car for a one-week vacation. You have the option of buying an insurance that costs $80 dollars for a week. If you do not purchase insurance, you would be personally liable for any damages. You anticipate that a minor collision will cost $2,000, whereas a major accident might cost $16,000 in repairs. Develop a payoff table for this situation. What decision should you make using each strategy? Aggressive (Optimistic) Conservative (Pessimistic) Opportunity Loss You have recently read in a magazine that that the probability of a major accident is 0.05% and that the probability of a minor collision is 0.18%. Construct a decision tree and identify the best expected value decision.You are considering three investment alternatives for some spare cash: Old Reliable Corporation stock (A1), Fly-By-Nite Air Cargo Company stock (A2), and a federally insured savings certificate (A3). You expect the economy will either "boom" (N1) or “bust” (N2), and you estimate that a boom is more likely (p1 = 0.6) than a bust (p2 = 0.4). Outcomes for the three alternatives are expected to be (1) $2000 in boom or $500 in bust for ORC; (2) $6000 in boom but $-5000 (loss) in bust for FBN: and (3) $1200 for the certificate in either case. Set up a payoff table (decision matrix) for this problem and show which of it Alternative maximizes expected value.On Monday, a certain stock closed at $10 per share. Before the stock market opens on Tuesday, you expect the stock to close at $9, $10, or $11 per share, with respective probabilities 0.3, 0.3, and 0.4. Looking ahead to Wednesday, you expect the stock to close 10 percent lower, unchanged, or 10 percent higher than Tuesday’s close, with the following probabilities. Tuesday's Close 10 Percent Lower Unchanged 10 Percent Higher $9 0.4 0.3 0.3 10 0.2 0.2 0.6 11 0.1 0.2 0.7 Early on Tuesday, you are directed to buy 100 shares of the stock before Thursday. All purchases are made at the end of the day, at the known closing price for that day, so your only options are to buy at the end of Tuesday or at the end of Wednesday. You wish to determine the optimal strategy for whether to buy on Tuesday or defer the purchase until Wednesday, given the Tuesday closing price, to minimize the expected purchase price. Develop and evaluate a decision tree. a-1. Determine the optimal…
- You are deciding between continuing to buy preassembled bikes and manufacturing your bikes. There are a lot of changes happening in the economy and you believe there is a 20% chance of a strong outlook and 50% flat and 30% weak over the next 2 years. You are committed to selling 500 bikes annually. When the economy is strong you can sell at full price, but you will need to apply different levels of discounts depending on the economy. Option 1: Preassembled bike profit ranges from $500 in a strong economy, $425 if the economy is flat and $200 when weak. 500 bikes each in 2023 and 2024. Option 2: You will buy components and assemble them yourself. You need to invest $100,000 in remodeling a space to do the work; however, earn $50 more profit for each bike ($550, $475, and $250). (Same volume as above) What do you recommend? Use a decision tree to explain which option is the most profitable after 2 years.1. If today stock is trading for $60 a share. You are confident that the stock price will experience a change in the value of over 30% relative to the current price in either upward or downward direction over the course of next year. Today you decide to transact in either one or two stocks maturing in one year. The strike price of both options is $60 a share. The call option premium is $6 and put option premium is $5. Given this information and your belief, you should _______. a. buy 2 calls b. buy 1 call and sell 1 put c. sell 1 call and 1 sell put d. buy 1 call and buy 1 put e. sell 2 puts Please explain2. Using the following table, perform ALL FIVE of the techniques for Decision Making under Uncertainty: Maximax, Maximin, Hurwicz Realism (a=0.7), LaPlace and Minimax Regret. You must show your work for obtaining the points. Large facility Medium-sized facility Small facility No facility STRONG MARKET 550,000 300,000 200,000 0 PROFIT (S) FAIR MARKET 110,000 129,000 100,000 0 POOR MARKET -310,000 -100,000 -32,000 0