a. Using the following, forecast the sales for the months up to January the following year:- i. A simple three month moving average. ii. A three period weighted moving average using weights of 1, 2 and 3. Assign the highest weight to the most recent data. iii. Exponential Smoothing when a= .6 and the forecast for March is 350.
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- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?QUESTION 1The table below shows the sales figures for a brand of shoe over the last 12 months.Months SalesJanuary 69February 75March 86April 92May 95June 100July 108August 115September 125October 131November 140December 150 a. Using the following, forecast the sales for the months up to January the following year:- iii. Exponential Smoothing when α= .6 and the forecast for March is 350.QUESTION 8 You are given the following information, comprising of an individual's expenses for the year 2015. Use the information provided hereunder to answer the following questions. Month January February March April May June July August September October November December Expenses 1977 820 970 1082 1220 1281 1546 1788 895 1108 1824 1954 a) Determine the expenses forecast using a two (2) period moving average. Calculate the MAD and MSE. b) Determine the expenses forecast using a two (2) period weighted moving average. Use 0.8 & 0.2 for the weights of the most recent and second most recent periods respectfully. Calculate the MAD and MSE. c) Develop an exponential smoothing forecast using a=0.2. Assume the forecast for the first month is the actual expenses for that month. Calculate the MAD and MSE. d) Developed a trend line to forecast expenses
- QUESTIONS: Quarterly demand for a washing machine is as shown. 1. After obtaining initial estimates for level, trend, and seasonal factors. forecast the demand for the first quarter of year III using Winter's model with a 6- - 0,25 where x is the last two digits of your student number. 2. Make a tracking signal analysis for the forecast and evaluate Maks Year I II Quarter 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 Demand 1900 1224 4000 5600 4800 1048 6200 8000Question 1 ) The monthiy sales Of yamizí Battery company are asfollows:- Month Jales 2000 2100 1500 1400 1300 Calcuiate fore cost sales for June using each of the fo llowing method: - i) Naive Method 1M 3 Month Simple moving averoger Ti) Exponentral smoothing using an a =0:3 cand may forecast of 1600 units.Question A reputable FMCG company is holding its Annual Sales Conference on January 30th 2021 for its New Year sales plan. The company is interested in launching new product beside its existing product lines. The new product will be novel in the history of the company. explain what FMCG company seeks for and following for above mentioned firm, with reason/limitations specified for the FMCG company. Discuss the techniques of forecasting that will be used by the company for its existing and new products. Explain specific type and reason for using those techniques. Also identify the limitations of these techniques. Use word/Excel
- 2. The AirGo is the largest publicly listed low budget airlines company. On the negative side for the company, which spent billions of dollars in development costs, is the consistently negative cash flow due to poor prediction of its passengers. Question: Airlines company approaches you to suggest possible methods for an effective Forecast and it's Monitoring & Controlling. Help the airlines for the better prediction of its passengers.Question 03 Suppose you sell stylish leather bags targeting young office going people who can use your bags to carry laptops and necessary stuff. You have already launched leather bags in February of this year and now based on the demand results of last 7 months, you want to predict the demand for your bags for the month of September. Hence, you want to select the right forecasting techniques and you are considering 2 period Moving Average, Naive technique and Exponential Smoothing (use any value between .10 - .15 as the value of alpha). Now figure out the better forecasting technique among 2 period Moving Average, Naive technique and Exponential Smoothing by doing the error calculation with the help of MAD, MSE, MAPE. Period Demand 2period Moving Average (Demand forecast) Naive technique (Demand forecast) Exponential Smoothing (Demand forecast) February 70 75 ** ** March 74 78 ** ** April 80 ** ** ** May 88 ** ** ** June…QUESTION 1 The table below shows the sales figures for a brand of shoe over the last 12 months. Months Sales January 69 February 75 March 86 April 92 May 95 June 100 July 108 August 115 September 125 October 131 November 140 December 150 a. Using the following, forecast the sales for the months up to January the following year:- i. A simple three month moving average. [2 marks] ii. A three period weighted moving average using weights of 1, 2 and 3. Assign the highest weight to the most recent data. [3 marks] iii. Exponential Smoothing when α= .6 and the forecast for March is 350. [5 marks] iv. Determine which of the three forecasting technique is the most accurate using MAD. [4 marks]
- QUESTION 5 Choose the answer with the best match. Elements of a Good Forecast, Meaningful: The benefits should outweigh the costs It should work consistently The degree of accuracy of the forecast should be stated The forecasting horizon must cover the time necessary to implement possible changes so that its results can be used The units measured should be useful to those using the forecast QUESTION 6 There are two main approaches to forecasting. Choose the best two: Quantitative, Consumer Judgmental, Quantitative Sales force, Judgmental Historical, Consumer Expert, Executive QUESTION 7 Describe the following: Andon Maintaining equipment in good condition Maintaining a workplace that is clean System for moving work to the next station as it is completed System of lights used at each workstation to…Q1) Forecasting is both art and science. Describe the situations where we use Qualitative forecasting techniques and quantitative forecasting techniquesQuestion 3: Jane is trying to forecast demand for her store, using moving average with n=2, Fill in the missing cells with correct values and find average error for first quarter and second quarter of year 2000 E Enroll- Year Quarter ment Forecast Error Abs Error 1997 313 3. 2 285 4 3 312 5. 4 339 6. 1998 1 359 7 320 356 385 6. 10 1999 396 367 11 397 12 423 13 14 2000 1 15 2000 3412M4