Assuming that Ritz must have the semiconductor (stopping or doing without is not a viable option), what is the best decision? Now, find the expected cost of the first attempt.
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- Ritz Products’s materials manager, Tej Dhakar, mustdetermine whether to make or buy a new semiconductor for thewrist TV that the firm is about to produce. One million unitsare expected to be produced over the life cycle. If the product ismade, start-up and production costs of the make decision total$1 million, with a probability of .4 that the product will be satisfactory and a .6 probability that it will not. If the product isnot satisfactory, the firm will have to reevaluate the decision. Ifthe decision is reevaluated, the choice will be whether to spendanother $1 million to redesign the semiconductor or to purchase.Likelihood of success the second time that the make decision ismade is .9. If the second make decision also fails, the firm mustpurchase. Regardless of when the purchase takes place, Dhakar’sbest judgment of cost is that Ritz will pay $.50 for each purchasedsemiconductor plus $1 million in vendor development cost.a) Assuming that Ritz must have the semiconductor (stopping…Ritz Products’s materials manager, Tej Dhakar, mustdetermine whether to make or buy a new semiconductor for thewrist TV that the firm is about to produce. One million unitsare expected to be produced over the life cycle. If the product ismade, start-up and production costs of the make decision total $1 million, with a probability of .4 that the product will be sat-isfactory and a .6 probability that it will not. If the product is not satisfactory, the firm will have to reevaluate the decision. Ifthe decision is reevaluated, the choice will be whether to spendanother $1 million to redesign the semiconductor or to purchase.Likelihood of success the second time that the make decision ismade is .9. If the second make decision also fails, the firm mustpurchase. Regardless of when the purchase takes place, Dhakar’sbest judgment of cost is that Ritz will pay $.50 for each purchasedsemiconductor plus $1 million in vendor development cost.a) Assuming that Ritz must have the semiconductor…Ritz Products’s materials manager, Tej Dhakar,must determine whether to make or buy a new semiconduc-tor for the wrist TV that the firm is about to produce. Onemillion units are expected to be produced over the life cycle.If the product is made, start-up and production costs of themake decision total $1 million, with a probability of .4 thatthe product will be satisfactory and a .6 probability that itwill not. If the product is not satisfactory, the firm will haveto reevaluate the decision. If the decision is reevaluated, thechoice will be whether to spend another $1 million to redesignthe semiconductor or to purchase. Likelihood of success thesecond time that the make decision is made is .9. If the secondmake decision also fails, the firm must purchase. Regardlessof when the purchase takes place, Dhakar’s best judgment ofcost is that Ritz will pay $.50 for each purchased semiconduc-tor plus $1 million in vendor development cost.a) Assuming that Ritz must have the semiconductor…
- 2. Come up with a decision using each of the different criteria under conditions of uncertainty using the table below. The payoff values are expressed as LOSSES and alpha = 0.5 State of Nature (Production Rate) Alternatives Very Low Low Moderate High Machine Brand A Machine Brand B Machine Brand C Machine Brand D Machine Brand E 163 125 -87 -19 58 128 -90 -59 36 40 185 -21 13 -56 -71 106 11 48 -55 107 Machine Brand F -98 -94 -24 Machine Brand G -33 176 165 16North Pole Toys needs to decide on their newest product line for Christmas. They narrowed their options to two possibilities: Product A would incur a fixed cost of $3,000 and a variable cost of $6 per unit and sells for $7.50; Product B would incur a fixed cost of $1,200 and a variable cost of $9 per unit and sells for $10. __________4a. What is the breakeven point for each of the two products? __________4b. What is the point of indifference between the two products?A project will cost $45,000 to develop.• When the system becomes operational after a one-year development period, operational costs willbe $9,000 during each year of the system’s five-year useful life.• The system will produce benefits of $30,000 in the first year of operation, and this figure willincrease by a compound 10% each year.What is the payback period for this project?
- Gamers Empire is considering marketing one of two new video games for the coming holiday season: Aliens Kidnapped My Dog or Ninjas vs. Pirates. Aliens Kidnapped My Dog does not appear to have any competition as it is a unique game. Estimated profits (in thousands of dollars) under high, medium and low demand are as follows: Demand Aliens Kidnapped My Dog High Medium Low Profit $1100 $800 $400 Probability 0.3 0.4 0.3 Gamers Empire is optimistic about Ninjas vs. Pirates. However, the concern is that profitability will be affect by their competitor Samurai Games releasing a similar title called Samurai vs. Robots. Estimated profits (in thousands of dollars) with and without competition are as follows: Demand Ninjas vs. Pirates with competition High Medium Low Profit $900 $500 $300 Probability 0.3 0.3 0.4 Ninjas vs. Pirates without competition Profit $1700 $900 $500 Probability 0.5 0.2 0.3 a) Construct a decision tree. b) Calculate the EMVs and state your decision if there is a 75%…2. A toy manufacturer has three different mechanisms that can be installed in a doll that it sells. The different mechanisms have three different setup costs (overheads) and variable costs and, therefore, the profit from the dolls is dependent on the volume of sales. The anticipated payoffs are as follows. Light Demand 0.25 $325,000 $300,000 -$400,000 Heavy Demand 0.3 Probability Wind-up action Pneumatic action Electrical action Moderate Demand 0.45 $190,000 $420,000 S170,000 $400,000 $800,000 $240,000 a. What is the EMV of each decision alternative? b. Which action should be selected? c. What is the expected value with perfect information? d. What is the expected value of perfect information? e. What is the expected opportunity loss?Ritz Products's materials manager, Tej Dhakar, must determine whether to make or buy a new semiconductor for the wrist TV that the firm is about to produce. One million units are expected to be produced over the life cycle. If the product is made, start-up and production costs of the make decision total $3 million, with a probability of 0.4 that the product will be satisfactory and a 0.6 probability that it will not. If the product is not satisfactory, the firm will have to reevaluate the decision. If the decision is reevaluated, the choice will be whether to spend another $3 million to redesign the semiconductor or to purchase. Likelihood of success the second time that the make decision is made is 0.8. If the second make decision also fails, the firm must purchase. Regardless of when the purchase takes place, Dhakar's best judgment of cost is that Ritz will pay $0.40 for each purchased semiconductor plus $2 million in vendor development cost. Part 2 a) Assuming that…
- A hotel is runned by a manager and the owners propsoed a new proposal to increase their sales and if the manager does increases the sales they will pay him addiotional 10k but if they stick to their current situation what are the pros and cons, List 4 pros and 4 cons for status quo.The lease of Theme Park, Inc., is about to expire. Management must decide whether to renew the lease for another 10 years or to relocate near the site of a proposed motel. The town planning board is currently debating the merits of granting approval to the motel. A consultant has estimated the net present value of Theme Park’s two alternatives under each state of nature as shown on the following page. What course of action would you recommend using?a. Maximaxb. Maximinc. Laplaced. Minimax regretOptionsMotelApprovedMotelRejectedRenew $ 500,000 $4,000,000Relocate 5,000,000 100,000Ritz Products's materials manager, Tej Dhakar, must determine whether to make or buy a new semiconductor for the wrist TV that the firm is about to produce. Three million units are expected to be produced over the life cycle. If the product is made, start-up and production costs of the make decision total $2 million, with a probability of 0.5 that the product will be satisfactory and a 0.5 probability that it will not. If the product is not satisfactory, the firm will have to reevaluate the decision. If the decision is reevaluated, the choice will be whether to spend another $2 million to redesign the semiconductor or to purchase. Likelihood of success the second time that the make decision is made is 0.8. If the second make decision also fails, the firm must purchase. Regardless of when the purchase takes place, Dhakar's best judgment of cost is that Ritz will pay $0.60 for each purchased semiconductor plus $2 million in vendor development cost. a) Assuming that Ritz must have the…
