company's bids for such sites have been successful. However, the company is also under pressure to refurbish some of its existing rigs for both efficiency and safety reasons. The £750 million could be used for this purpose instead. If the money is used for refurbishment, there is a 50 percent chance of increasing efficiency to generate a return on the £750 million of 5 percent, and a 50 percent chance of generating a return of 10 percent. If the decision to refurbish takes place after the bid has been made and failed, another £500 million will be required for refurbishment. a) Construct a decision tree for this problem.
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- There are two outcomes: a good market and a bad market. , The decision table is presented below. There are four alternatives: do nothing, build a small plant, build a medium-size plant, and build a large plant. PAYOFFS Outcomes Alternatives Good market Bad market Do nothing $0 $0 Small Plant $30,000 ($10,000) Medium Plant $100,000 ($15,000) Large Plant $200,000 ($30,000) So you are to workout the Maximax, the Maximin, the Equally likely the Hurwicz based on a .11 probability and the regret using minimax. In words give the answers to these questions: What are your answers under: Answers Best payoff option for maximax is Common Stock Best payoff option for maximin is doing nothing Best payoff option for equally likely is Common Stock Best payoff option for Hurwicz is doing nothing Put a Bold Box around the word Outcomes Keep the Bad Market amounts in Red Ink Make the type style Ariel and Size 12 in BlackPlease turn in the Decision Table for the following scenario. A company has various rules for how payments to suppliers are to be authorized. Some payments are in response to an approved purchase order. For approved purchase orders under $5,000, the accounting clerk can immediately issue a check against that purchase order and sign the check. For approved purchase orders between $5,000 and $10,000, the accounting clerk can immediately issue a check but must additionally obtain a second signature. Payments for approved purchase orders over $10,000 always require the approval of the accounting manager to issue the check as well as the signature of two accounting clerks. Payments that are not covered by a purchase order that are under $5,000 must be approved by the accounting manager and a departmental manager that will absorb the cost of the payment into that department’s budget. Such checks can be signed by a single accounting clerk. Payments that are not covered by a purchase order…Carlisle Tire and Rubber, Inc., is considering expanding production to meet potential increases in the demand for one of its tire products. Carlisle’s alternatives are to construct a new plant, expand the existing plant, or do nothing in the short run. The market for this particular tire product may expand, remain stable, or contract. Carlisle’s marketing department estimates the probabilities of these market outcomes to be 0.25, 0.35, and 0.40, respectively. The file P09_31.xlsx contains Carlisle’s payoffs and costs for the various combinations of decisions and outcomes. a. Use PrecisionTree to identify the strategy that maximizes this tire manufacturer’s expected profit. b. Perform a sensitivity analysis on the optimal decision, letting each of the monetary inputs vary one at a time plus or minus 10% from its base value, and summarize your findings. Which of the inputs appears to have the largest effect on the best solution? Tire plant decisions Decision\outcome…
- Carlisle Tire and Rubber, Inc., is considering expanding production to meet potential increases in the demand for one of its tire products. Carlisle’s alternatives are to construct a new plant, expand the existing plant, or do nothing in the short run. The market for this particular tire product may expand, remain stable, or contract. Carlisle’s marketing department estimates the probabilities of these market outcomes to be 0.25, 0.35, and 0.40, respectively. The file P06_31.xlsx (picture of given excel file is attached) contains Carlisle’s payoffs and costs for the various combinations of decisions and outcomes. Identify the strategy that maximizes this tire manufacturer’s expected profit. Perform a sensitivity analysis on the optimal decision, letting each of the monetary inputs vary one at a time plus or minus 10% from its base value, and summarize your findings. Which of the inputs appears to have the largest effect on the best solution?The Irontown Independent School District wants to sell a parcel of unimproved land that it does not need. Its three best offers are as follows: Organization/Company Offer Proposed Use The State Department of Public Safety (DPS) $5.7 million New state highway patrol barracks The Lexington Presbyterian Church $5.6 million Start a church school Newberry Inc. $5.5 million Open a car dealership As the financial adviser for the school district, which offer would you prefer?Problem #2 Lebanon Metal Company (LMC), a manufacturer of various metal parts, must decide whether to enter the competition to become the supplier of transmission housings for Gulf Electric, a company that produces the housings in its own in-house manufacturing To compete, LMC must purchase a new forge that will cost $150,000. If LMC gets the order, it may be able to sell as many as 3,000 units per year to Gulf Electric for $60 each, and costs will be $15 per unit. The firm expects that the project will have about five-year product life. The firm also estimates that the amount ordered by Gulf Electric in the first year will be ordered in each of the subsequent four years. The initial investr can be depreciated on a MACRS-GDS basis over a 5 -year period, and the tax-rate is expected to remain 40%. At the end of five years, the forge is expected to retain a market value of $50,000 at the end of year 5. LMC's before tax MARR is 15% per year. Problem #2 Part A: Create a spreadsheet to…
- Problem 3: A group of doctors is considering the construction of a private clinic. IF the medical demand is high (favorable market for the clinic), the physicians could realize a profit of P1,000,000. If the market is not favorable they could lose P400,000. If they don’t proceed at all, there is no cost. In the absence of any market research, the best the physician can guess is that there is a 50-50 chance the clinic will be successful. Required: Construct a decision tree to help analyze this problem. What should the doctors do? Problem 4: Continuing with problem 3, a firm open to conduct a market research involving the proposed venture and using analytical tools can give an accurate information, thus gave the following info: Probability of a favorable market given a favorable study is 0.82 Probability of an unfavorable market given a favorable study is 0.18 Probability of a favorable market given an unfavorable study is 0.11 Probability…If a U.S. manager is trying to close a deal with a Latin American manager but has not heard back for quite some time. The U.S. manager is getting nervous that if he/she waits too long, he/she will miss out on any backup options lost while waiting for the Latin American counterpart. What should the U.S. manager do? How can he/she tell when it is time to drop the deal?Carlisle Tire and Rubber, Inc., is considering expanding production to meet potential increases in the demand for one of its tire products. Carlisle's alternatives are to construct a new plant, expand the existing plant, or do nothing in the short run. The market for this particular tire product may improve, remain stable, or contract. The table below presents the payoff matrix. Improve Remain stable Contract Construct a new plant $400,000 -$100,000 -$200,000 Expand existing plant $250,000 -$50,000 -$75,000 Do nothing $50,000 $0 -$30,000 Considered the problem statement and data table above. Under the Minimax Regret decision rule, the optimal decision is [Select] Y.The corresponding value for the optimal decision is [Select]
- Risk manager Camila De Leon of Johnson Chemicals is considering two options for the firm's supplier portfolio. Option 1 uses two local suppliers. Each has a "unique-event" risk of 5.8%, and the probability of a "super-event" that would disable both at the same time is estimated to be 1.3%. Option 2 uses two suppliers located in different countries. Each has a "unique-event" risk of 14%, and the probability of a "super-event" that would disable both at the same time is estimated to be .24%.Risk manager Camila De Leon of Johnson Chemicals is considering two options for the firm's supplier portfolio. Option 1 uses two local suppliers. Each has a "unique-event" risk of 5.8%, and the probability of a "super-event" that would disable both at the same time is estimated to be 1.3%. Option 2 uses two suppliers located in different countries. Each has a "unique-event" risk of 14%, and the probability of a "super-event" that would disable both at the same time is estimated to be .24%. a) The probability that both suppliers will be disrupted using option 1 is b)Similarly, determine the probability of a total disruption for option 2. c) Which option would provide the lowest risk of a total shutdown?TOYOTA SA TO INVEST OVER R4BN IN CAR ASSEMBLY AND PARTS Toyota SA Motors (TSAM) has announced a R4.28bn investment in local vehicle assembly and partssupply. Speaking at the company’s annual State of the Motor Industry address at Kyalami on Thursday,president and CEO Andrew Kirby said the lion’s share of R2.43bn would go towards the production ofa new passenger-car model from October 2021 at the Prospecton plant in KwaZulu-Natal.The new car, which he did not name, will replace the Corolla model line that will end in 2020. TSAMalso announced it will build a Toyota Hybrid Synergy Drive vehicle, in a first for the continent. Kirbysaid the investment will inject R2.85bn a year into the South African economy and create about 1,500new jobs. He noted that the deal was made possible due to industrial policy certainty in the form ofthe Automotive Production and Development Programme, the government’s incentive plan for themotor industry. The next phase of the APDP runs from 2021 to 2035.TSAM…