Draw a decision tree and advise which course of action generates the greatest expected profit. ii. What is the maximum amount that should be paid for market research to determine with certainty whether demand will be strong or weak?
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A company is considering a new product launch. There is a 0.6 chance that
demand for the product will be strong and a 0.4 chance that demand will be
weak. Two strategies for the launch are possible: 1 has high promotion costs and
a net
proves weak a net cash outflow of (K30 000) will result. Strategy 2 has low
promotion costs and if demand is strong will generate a
000 but with weak demand a net cash inflow of K20 000.
i. Draw a decision tree and advise which course of action generates the
greatest expected profit.
ii. What is the maximum amount that should be paid for
determine with certainty whether demand will be strong or weak?
Step by step
Solved in 3 steps with 2 images
- A. A company wants to produce a souvenir with a marketing life of six months. Uncertainty surrounds the likely sales volume as well as the fixed costs of the venture as shown below: Sales units Probability Contrn. /unit Probability Fixed cost K7 K5 100 000 0.3 80 000 0.6 60 000 0.1 1.0 0.5 0.5 1.0 Determine the expected value of the contribution K400 000 K450 000 K500 000 Probability 0.2 0.5 0.3 1.0A company wants to produce a souvenir with a marketing life of sixmonths. Uncertainty surrounds the likely sales volume as well as thefixed costs of the venture as shown below:Sales units Probability Contrn. /unit Probability Fixed cost Probability100 000 0.3 K 7 0.5 K400 000 0.2 Page 5 of 80 000 0.6 K 5 0.5 K450 000 0.560 000 0.1 K500 000 0.31.0 1.0 1.0 Determine the expected value of the contributionMichael is the marketing executive of SHOPEE and he is planning to launch the 2.2.22 online SALE through price discounts, either 40% off or 20% off. He also learned that SHOPEE closest competitor LAZADA , is planning to promote also a 2.22.22 online SALE with price discounts , either 50% off or 30% off. If SHOPEE launches the 40% off, it will gain nothing. If LAZADA launches the 50% off or gain 8,000,000 if LAZADA launches the 30% off. If SHOPEE launches the 20% off, it will lose 2,000,000 if LAZADA launches the 50% off or lose 5,000,000 if LAZADA launches the 30% off. What should be Michael's Strategy for SHOPEE and what should be the strategy of LAZADA? A. Michael should launch the 20% OFF for SHOPEE and LAZADA should launch the 30% OFF. B. Michael should launch the 40% OFF for SHOPEE and LAZADA should launch the 30% OFF. C. Michael should launch the 40% OFF for SHOPPE and LAZADA should launch the 50% OFF. D. Michael should launch the 20% OFF for SHOPPE and LAZADA should launch…
- Michael is the marketing executive of SHOPEE and he is planning to launch the 2.2.22 online SALE through price discounts, either 40% off or 20% off. He also learned that SHOPEE closest competitor LAZADA , is planning to promote also a 2.22.22 online SALE with price discounts , either 50% off or 30% off. If SHOPEE launches the 40% off, it will gain nothing. If LAZADA launches the 50% off or gain 8,000,000 if LAZADA launches the 30% off. If SHOPEE launches the 20% off, it will lose 2,000,000 if LAZADA launches the 50% off or lose 5,000,000 if LAZADA launches the 30% off. 1.Which strategy is dominated by SHOPEE depending on strategy of LAZADA? A. 50% OFF B. 40% OFF C. 20% OFF D. 30% OFF E. NONE 2.What should be the strategy of LAZADA? A. 50% OFF B. 40% OFF C. 30% OFF D. 20% OFFA company is planning on launching a new product. It was thinking of launching in June of next year, but it believes that a rival is also considering launching a similar product around that time. The company is considering bringing the launch forward to the end of this year. This will cost an extra $3M to carry out and the company believes it will have a 0.8 probability of beating the rival to the market. If, however, they wait until June, the probability of beating the rival falls to 0.2. To make the decision easier, the company assumes that sales will be either high, medium or low. If the company beats its rival, the probability of high sales is 0.6, the probability of medium sales is 0.25, and the probability of low sales is 0.15. If it doesn’t beat its rival, the probability of high sales falls to 0.35, medium sales rises to 0.45, and low sales rises to 0.2. The financial impacts are that high sales would be worth $9M, medium would be worth $5M and low, $1M. What’s the optimal…A company is planning on launching a new product. It was thinking of launching in June of next year, but it believes that a rival is also considering launching a similar product around that time. The company is considering bringing the launch forward to the end of this year. This will cost an extra $3M to carry out and the company believes it will have a 0.8 probability of beating the rival to the market. If, however, they wait until June, the probability of beating the rival falls to 0.2. To make the decision easier, the company assumes that sales will be either high, medium or low. If the company launches before its rival, the probability of high sales is 0.6, the probability of medium sales is 0.25, and the probability of low sales is 0.15. If it launches after its rival, the probability of high sales falls to 0.35, medium sales rises to 0.45, and low sales rises to 0.2. The financial impacts are that high sales would be worth $9M, medium would be worth $5M and low, $1M. Using…
- Wired & Plugged specializes in manufacturing modern electronic components. It also builds equipment that produces the components. The marketing and production directors advised the president about a proposed manufacturing facility in the form of a payoff table as shown. Decision Profits($) Strong Marked Fair Market Poor Market Large-sized facility Medium-sized facility Small- sized facility No facility 450,000 2500,000 350,000 0 220,000 150,000 150,000 0 -310,000 -250,000 -80,000 0 What decision should be made using the LaPlace criterion?I draw 5 cards from a deck (replacing each cardimmediately after it is drawn). I receive $4 for each heartthat is drawn. Find the mean and variance of my total payoff.Let's modify the scenario from Q1 and Q2 a bit. Management estimates that the incremental promotion program required to generate sufficient demand to boost sales by 20% will need to be: Marketing Costs $ 60,000 (exclusive of commissions) Consumer Advertising $ 56,135 $ 39,295 Trade Promotion Sales Promotion $ 25,000 The total market for craft beer sold in six packs is about 2,500,000 six packs per year. How much market share will Shannon's need to acquire in order to break-even on the incremental costs that are anticipated? Express your answer in percent format to two decimal places. For example, 5.00 for five percent or .50 for one-half of one percent. Do not include the percent sign.
- In 1996, McDonald’s (MD) launched Campaign 55, reducing the prices ofits “flagship” sandwiches with the objective of regaining market share. Beforethe launch, suppose MD’s management envisioned two possible outcomes: astrong customer response or a weak response. Industry experts were notvery optimistic about the campaign. They assessed the probability of a strong response to be .40. MD predicted an expected profit of $50 million if theresponse proved to be strong. If the immediate customer response was weak,management believed that all was not lost. If MD could persuade themajority of its franchisees to back and help fund the campaign, the resultingprofit would be $20 million. However, if the majority rose up against thecampaign, the red ink would fly, and McDonald’s profit would be -$100million. MD considered these two outcomes to be equally likely.a. Given these assessments, construct a decision tree to determine MD’sexpected-profit-maximizing course of action.b. Suppose that MD has…b. A company is trying to decide whether to bid for a certain contract or not. They estimate that merely preparing the bid will cost R10 000. If their company bid then they estimate that there is a 50% chance that their bid will be put on the "short-list", otherwise their bid will be rejected. Once "short-listed" the company will have to supply further detailed information (entailing costs estimated at R5 000). After this stage their bid will either be accepted or rejected. The company estimates that the labour and material costs associated with the contract are R127 000. They are considering three possible bid prices, namely R155 000, R170 000 and R190 000. They estimate that the probability of these bids being accepted (once they have been short-listed) is 0.90, 0.75 and 0.35 respectively. The immediate question facing the company is whether or not to prepare a bid. Draw a decision tree for the above decision situation. Show each decision point and each chance event. Insert all…You are planning to rent a car for a one-week vacation. You have the option of buying an insurance that costs $80 dollars for a week. If you do not purchase insurance, you would be personally liable for any damages. You anticipate that a minor collision will cost $2,000, whereas a major accident might cost $16,000 in repairs. Develop a payoff table for this situation. What decision should you make using each strategy? Aggressive (Optimistic) Conservative (Pessimistic) Opportunity Loss You have recently read in a magazine that that the probability of a major accident is 0.05% and that the probability of a minor collision is 0.18%. Construct a decision tree and identify the best expected value decision.