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The owner of Tastee Cookies needs to decide whether to lease a small, medium, or large new retail outlet. She estimates that monthly profits will vary with demand for her cookies as follows:
SIZE OF OUTLET |
DEMAND | |||||
LOW | HIGH | |||||
Small | $ | 1,000 | 1,000 | |||
Medium | 500 | 2,500 | ||||
Large | 0 | 3,000 | ||||
For what range of probability that demand will be high, will she decide to lease the medium facility?
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- A physician purchases a particular vaccine on Monday of each week. The vaccine diust be used within the week following, otherwise it becomes worthless. The vaccine costss $ 2 per dose and the physician charges $ .4 per dose. In the past 50 weeks, the physician has administered the vaccine in the following quantities : Doses per Week Number of Weeks 20 25 15 50 25 60 On the basis of EMV, find how many doses the physician must purchase each week to maximise his profits ?32. DETAILS Prompt 0/1 Submissions Used 2-D. What is the standard deviation (in whole minutes) for the above flight? O 6400 23 533 12 80 25 O 24 Submit Answer MY NOTES Quantas Airlines quotes a flight time of 20 hours, 15 minutes for its flight from New York (JFK), USA to Sydney (SYD), Australia. Suppose that the actual flight time is uniformly distributed between 19 hours 35 minutes and 20 hours 55 minutes. ASK YOUR TEACHERMany decision problems have the following simplestructure. A decision maker has two possible decisions, 1 and 2. If decision 1 is made, a sure cost of c isincurred. If decision 2 is made, there are two possibleoutcomes, with costs c1 and c2 and probabilities p and1 2 p. We assume that c1 , c , c2. The idea is thatdecision 1, the riskless decision, has a moderate cost,whereas decision 2, the risky decision, has a low costc1 or a high cost c2.a. Calculate the expected cost from the riskydecision.b. List as many scenarios as you can think of thathave this structure. (Here’s an example to get youstarted. Think of insurance, where you pay a surepremium to avoid a large possible loss.) For eachof these scenarios, indicate whether you wouldbase your decision on EMV or on expected utility
- Determine whether or not to stock a large supply of steel. There is uncertainty in the price of steel. Based on past history the following data are available Price (future) Prob (Price) PW if stocked PW if not stocked High 0.3 100000 0 Medium 0.5 -10000 0 Low 0.2 -50000 0 What is the probability that stocking steel will result in a negative present worth (PW)?An investment plan allows investors to deposit a minimum of £1,000 at the beginning of the term, which pays a fixed return rate of 5% per annum. Af- ter a year, investors have to deposit a minimum of £800 with an expected return rate of 3% per annum for the second year and a standard deviation of 2% per annum. a. Find the expected value of the total minimum amount earned after two years of investment. b. Find the standard deviation of the total minimum amount earned after two years of investment.You're the manager of global opportunities for a U.S. manufacturer that is considering expanding sales into Asia. Your ma the market potential in Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore as described in the following table: Success Level Big Mediocre Failure Malaysia Probability 0.5 0.3 0.2 Units 500,000 300,000 0 Philippines Probability 0.2 0.7 0.1 Units 1,400,000 700,000 0 Singapore Probability Units 0.3 0.3 0.4 1,200,000 384,000 0 The product sells for $10, and each unit has a constant marginal cost of $8. Assume that the (fixed) cost of entering the market (regardless of which market you select) is $250,000. In the following table, enter the expected number of units sold, and the expected profit, from entering each market. Market Malaysia Expected Number of Units Sold Expected Profit Philippines Singapore $ If you were to enter one of the previously described markets, which one would you enter in order to earn the highest expected profit?
- What would you expect the relationship to be between selling a high-risk product and a low-risk product using personal selling Low risk and high-risk are equally as likely OLOW-risk is more likely to be sold using personal selling O High-risk is less likely to be sold using personal selling O High-risk is more likely to be sold using personal selling5. Shift-in-charge Nazar Al Rushdy: Nazar is pessimistic about the market price. What is your guidance for Nazar? The decision to employ decision trees in crucial situations has been taken by Salem Al Harthi, the plant manager. The table below presents data on demand for a duration of 6 hours along with their respective probabilities. The first row of the table provides the probability of demand for the initial three hours when a leak occurs, denoted in parentheses. Subsequently, the following three rows indicate the probabilities of high, medium, and low demand for the succeeding three hours. To illustrate, if the initial 3-hour market price was low, the probabilities of high demand, medium demand, and low demand in the next three hours are 0.2, 0.3, and 0.5, respectively. Market price High Market price Medium Initial 3-hrs (0.2) Initial 3-hrs (0.5) Market price Low Initial 3-hrs (0.3) High demand (next (0.5) (0.4) (0.2) 3 hrs) Medium demand (0.3) (0.2) (0.3) (next 3 hours) Low demand…ponse SQUCOFFEE - Goo.. Google äazi SQU paga ic gaall Jija M POMG2710 You are a member of an advertising campaign for a new product in your 1 point company. In spite of your members' excitement, there are some uncertainties worrying you about the new product. You are hesitant to share your concerns because you do not want to disapprove the group's idea. Also, your supervisor seems to be among the excited members. Therefore, you decide to ignore your individual concerns and carry on along because you respect them and don't want to embarrass anyone by explaining your worries and presenting any questions. In addition, you don't want to spoil their happiness. This is called Groupthink Slander defamation O Free riders O Self-oriented roles
- When playing roulette at a casino, a gambler is trying to decide whether to bet $10 on the number 30 or to bet $10 that the outcome is any one of the three possibilities 00, 0, or 1. 3 The gambler knows that the expected value of the $10 bet for a single number is - 53¢. For the $10 bet that the outcome is 00, 0, or 1, there is a probability of 38 of making a net profit of $30 and a probability of losing $10. 35 38 a. Find the expected value for the $10 bet that the outcome is 00, 0, or 1. b. Which bet is better: a $10 bet on the number 30 or a $10 bet that the outcome is any one of the numbers 00, 0, or 1? Why? a. The expected value is $. (Round to the nearest cent as needed.) b. Since the expected value of the bet on the number 30 is C than the expected value for the bet that the outcome is 00, 0, or 1, the bet on is better.A gym membership charges their current members a monthly fee on the 1" of the month. Monthly churn rate (the probability of a member ending their membership) is 4%. Profit from the monthly membership fee is $10 per member; and the recruitment cost (advertising and promotions) for a new member are $200. What is the per member expected profit to the gym?The project manager of Good Public Relations gatheredthe data shown in Table 7.15 for a new advertisingcampaign.a. How long is the project likely to take? b. What is the probability that the project will take more than38 weeks?c. Consider the path A–E–G–H–J. What is the probability thatthis path will exceed 38 weeks?