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From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2014. Using your estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in 2040? In some applications, the variable being studied increases so quickly ("exponentially") that a regular graph isn't informative. There, a regular graph would show data close to 0 and then a sudden spike at the very end. Instead, for these applications, we often use logarithmic scales. We replace the y-axis tick marks of 1, 2, 3, 4, etc. with y-axis tick marks of 101 = 10, 102 = 100, 103 = 1000, 104 = 10000, etc. In other words, the logarithms of the new tick marks are equally spaced.   Technology is one area where progress is extraordinarily rapid. Moore's Law states that the progress of technology (measured in different ways) doubles every 2 years. A common example counts the number of transitors per integrated circuit. A regular y-axis scale is appropriate when a trend is linear, i.e. 100 transistors, 200 transistors, 300 transistors, 400 transistors, etc. However, technology actually increased at a much quicker pace such as 100 transistors,.1,000 transistors, 10,000 transistors, 100,000 transistors, etc. The following is a plot of the number of transistors per integrated circuit over the period 1971 - 2008 taken from https://ourworldindata.org/technological-progress (that site contains a lot of data, not just for technology). At first, this graph seems to show a steady progression until you look carefully at the y-axis ... it's not linear. From  the graph, it seems that from 1971 to 1981 the number of transistors went from about 1,000 to 40,000. Moore's Law predicts that in 10 years, it would double 5 times, i.e. go from 1,000 to 32,000, and the actual values (using very rough estimates) seem to support this. (1st photo) The following is the same plot but with the common logarithm of the y-axis shown. You can see that log(y) goes up uniformly. (2nd photo) Part a: The number of transistors per IC in 1972 seems to be about 4,000 (a rough estimate by eye). Using this estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be 20 years later, in 1992? Prediction =   ____________ Part b: From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2014. Using your estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in 2040?  ________________ Part c: Do you think that your prediction in Part b is believable? Why or why not? __________

From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2014. Using your estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in 2040? In some applications, the variable being studied increases so quickly ("exponentially") that a regular graph isn't informative. There, a regular graph would show data close to 0 and then a sudden spike at the very end. Instead, for these applications, we often use logarithmic scales. We replace the y-axis tick marks of 1, 2, 3, 4, etc. with y-axis tick marks of 101 = 10, 102 = 100, 103 = 1000, 104 = 10000, etc. In other words, the logarithms of the new tick marks are equally spaced.   Technology is one area where progress is extraordinarily rapid. Moore's Law states that the progress of technology (measured in different ways) doubles every 2 years. A common example counts the number of transitors per integrated circuit. A regular y-axis scale is appropriate when a trend is linear, i.e. 100 transistors, 200 transistors, 300 transistors, 400 transistors, etc. However, technology actually increased at a much quicker pace such as 100 transistors,.1,000 transistors, 10,000 transistors, 100,000 transistors, etc. The following is a plot of the number of transistors per integrated circuit over the period 1971 - 2008 taken from https://ourworldindata.org/technological-progress (that site contains a lot of data, not just for technology). At first, this graph seems to show a steady progression until you look carefully at the y-axis ... it's not linear. From  the graph, it seems that from 1971 to 1981 the number of transistors went from about 1,000 to 40,000. Moore's Law predicts that in 10 years, it would double 5 times, i.e. go from 1,000 to 32,000, and the actual values (using very rough estimates) seem to support this. (1st photo) The following is the same plot but with the common logarithm of the y-axis shown. You can see that log(y) goes up uniformly. (2nd photo) Part a: The number of transistors per IC in 1972 seems to be about 4,000 (a rough estimate by eye). Using this estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be 20 years later, in 1992? Prediction =   ____________ Part b: From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2014. Using your estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in 2040?  ________________ Part c: Do you think that your prediction in Part b is believable? Why or why not? __________

Computer Networking: A Top-Down Approach (7th Edition)
Computer Networking: A Top-Down Approach (7th Edition)
7th Edition
ISBN:9780133594140
Author:James Kurose, Keith Ross
Publisher:James Kurose, Keith Ross
Chapter1: Computer Networks And The Internet
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem R1RQ: What is the difference between a host and an end system? List several different types of end...
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From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2014. Using your estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in 2040?

In some applications, the variable being studied increases so quickly ("exponentially") that a regular graph isn't informative. There, a regular graph would show data close to 0 and then a sudden spike at the very end. Instead, for these applications, we often use logarithmic scales. We replace the y-axis tick marks of 1, 2, 3, 4, etc. with y-axis tick marks of 101 = 10, 102 = 100, 103 = 1000, 104 = 10000, etc. In other words, the logarithms of the new tick marks are equally spaced.

 

Technology is one area where progress is extraordinarily rapid. Moore's Law states that the progress of technology (measured in different ways) doubles every 2 years. A common example counts the number of transitors per integrated circuit. A regular y-axis scale is appropriate when a trend is linear, i.e. 100 transistors, 200 transistors, 300 transistors, 400 transistors, etc. However, technology actually increased at a much quicker pace such as 100 transistors,.1,000 transistors, 10,000 transistors, 100,000 transistors, etc.

The following is a plot of the number of transistors per integrated circuit over the period 1971 - 2008 taken from https://ourworldindata.org/technological-progress (that site contains a lot of data, not just for technology). At first, this graph seems to show a steady progression until you look carefully at the y-axis ... it's not linear. From  the graph, it seems that from 1971 to 1981 the number of transistors went from about 1,000 to 40,000. Moore's Law predicts that in 10 years, it would double 5 times, i.e. go from 1,000 to 32,000, and the actual values (using very rough estimates) seem to support this.

(1st photo)

The following is the same plot but with the common logarithm of the y-axis shown. You can see that log(y) goes up uniformly.

(2nd photo)

Part a: The number of transistors per IC in 1972 seems to be about 4,000 (a rough estimate by eye). Using this estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be 20 years later, in 1992?

Prediction =   ____________

Part b: From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2014. Using your estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in 2040? 

________________

Part c: Do you think that your prediction in Part b is believable? Why or why not? __________

AMD K5 log(y) Moore's law describes the empirical regularity that the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years. This advancement is important as other aspects of technological progress – such as processing speed or the price of electronic products – are linked to Moore's law. Moore's Law - The number of transistors on integrated circuit chips (1971-2018) Our World in Data 11 50,000,000,000 72-core Xeon Phi Centriq 2400 OGC2 IPU SPARC M7 32-core AMD Epyc Apple A12X Bionic Tegra Xavier SoC 10 10,000,000,000 IBM z13 Storage Controller, 18-core Xeon Haswell-E5. 5,000,000,000 Qualcomm Snapdragon 8cx/SCX8180 HISilicon Kirin 980 + Apple A12 Bionic Xbax One main Soc. 61-core Xeon Phi 12-core POWER 8-core Xeon Nehalem-EX Six-core Xeon 7400 Dual-core Itanium 20 Pentium D Presler POWERO HISilicon Kirin 710 A10 core Corg 7 Broadwell-E Ođualcomm Snapdragon 835 A Dual-core + GPU Ins Core i7 Broadwell-U Quad-core + GPU GT2 Core i7 Skylake K 1,000,000,000 • Duad-core+ GPU Core i7 Haswell 500,000,000 Oore i7 (Quad) SAMD K10 guad-core 2M L3 Itanium 2 with 9 MB cache Itanium 2 Madison 6MO Pentium D Smithfield Itanium 2 McKinleyo Pentium 4 Prescott-2MO Apple A7 (dual-core ARM64 "mobile SoC") Core 2 Duo Wolfdale Core 2 Duo Conroe Cel Core 2 Duo Wolfdale 3M O 8 100,000,000 Core 2 Duo Allendale Pentium 4 Cedar Mil AMD K8O O Pentium 4 Prescott 50,000,000 Pentium 4 Northwoode O OBarton Pentium 4 Willametteo n OAtom Pentium I Tualatin Pentium II Mobile Dixono AMD K7 AMD K6- OPentium i Coppermine ARM Cortex-A9 10,000,000 AMD K6 Pentium Proo amath Pentium II Katmal entium Il Deschutes 5,000,000 Pentium Pentiume AMD KS SA110 Intel 80486 1,000,000 RA000 500,000 T Explorer's 32-bit Lisp'machine chip ARM700 Intel 80386o Motorola 68020 . Intel 960 OARM 3 100,000 Intel 80286 PEC WRL Multititan Motorola "68000 AHM 50,000 OIntel 80186 Intel 80860 O Intel 8088 OARM 2 ARM 1 C816 Novix. NC4016 ARM 6 Mgtorgla 10,000 TMS 1000 Zilog Z80 5,000 RCA 1802 ntel B085 Intel 8008. ntel 8080 Motorola Technology Intel 4004 3 1,000 1984 1986 1972 1978 Data source: Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count) The data visualization is available at OurWorldinData.org. There you find more visualizations and research on this topic. Licensed under CC-BY-SA by the author Max Roser. 6. 00 4. Transistor count 1970 1974 1976 1980 1982 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Transcribed Image Text:AMD K5 log(y) Moore's law describes the empirical regularity that the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years. This advancement is important as other aspects of technological progress – such as processing speed or the price of electronic products – are linked to Moore's law. Moore's Law - The number of transistors on integrated circuit chips (1971-2018) Our World in Data 11 50,000,000,000 72-core Xeon Phi Centriq 2400 OGC2 IPU SPARC M7 32-core AMD Epyc Apple A12X Bionic Tegra Xavier SoC 10 10,000,000,000 IBM z13 Storage Controller, 18-core Xeon Haswell-E5. 5,000,000,000 Qualcomm Snapdragon 8cx/SCX8180 HISilicon Kirin 980 + Apple A12 Bionic Xbax One main Soc. 61-core Xeon Phi 12-core POWER 8-core Xeon Nehalem-EX Six-core Xeon 7400 Dual-core Itanium 20 Pentium D Presler POWERO HISilicon Kirin 710 A10 core Corg 7 Broadwell-E Ođualcomm Snapdragon 835 A Dual-core + GPU Ins Core i7 Broadwell-U Quad-core + GPU GT2 Core i7 Skylake K 1,000,000,000 • Duad-core+ GPU Core i7 Haswell 500,000,000 Oore i7 (Quad) SAMD K10 guad-core 2M L3 Itanium 2 with 9 MB cache Itanium 2 Madison 6MO Pentium D Smithfield Itanium 2 McKinleyo Pentium 4 Prescott-2MO Apple A7 (dual-core ARM64 "mobile SoC") Core 2 Duo Wolfdale Core 2 Duo Conroe Cel Core 2 Duo Wolfdale 3M O 8 100,000,000 Core 2 Duo Allendale Pentium 4 Cedar Mil AMD K8O O Pentium 4 Prescott 50,000,000 Pentium 4 Northwoode O OBarton Pentium 4 Willametteo n OAtom Pentium I Tualatin Pentium II Mobile Dixono AMD K7 AMD K6- OPentium i Coppermine ARM Cortex-A9 10,000,000 AMD K6 Pentium Proo amath Pentium II Katmal entium Il Deschutes 5,000,000 Pentium Pentiume AMD KS SA110 Intel 80486 1,000,000 RA000 500,000 T Explorer's 32-bit Lisp'machine chip ARM700 Intel 80386o Motorola 68020 . Intel 960 OARM 3 100,000 Intel 80286 PEC WRL Multititan Motorola "68000 AHM 50,000 OIntel 80186 Intel 80860 O Intel 8088 OARM 2 ARM 1 C816 Novix. NC4016 ARM 6 Mgtorgla 10,000 TMS 1000 Zilog Z80 5,000 RCA 1802 ntel B085 Intel 8008. ntel 8080 Motorola Technology Intel 4004 3 1,000 1984 1986 1972 1978 Data source: Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count) The data visualization is available at OurWorldinData.org. There you find more visualizations and research on this topic. Licensed under CC-BY-SA by the author Max Roser. 6. 00 4. Transistor count 1970 1974 1976 1980 1982 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
12-core Xeon Phi Centriq 2400 OGC2 IPU AMD KBO utum 4 Prenc 4 Cedar M Moore's Law – The number of transistors on integrated circuit chips (1971-2018) Moore's law describes the empirical regularity that the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years. This advancement is important as other aspects of technological progress – such as processing speed or the price of electronic products – are linked to Moore's law. Our World in Data 50,000,000,000 72-core Xeon Phi Centriq 2400 O GC2 IPU 10,000,000,000 SPARC M7. IBM 213 Storage Controller 18-core Xeon Haswell-E5 Xbox One main Soc 61-core Xeon Phị 12-core POWER 32-core AMD Epyc 5,000,000,000 Apple A12X Bionic Tegra Xavier SoC Qualcomm Snapdragon 8cx/SCXB180 8 HISilicon Kirin 980 + Apple A12 Bionic • o HISilicon Kirin 710 8-core Xeon Nehalem-EX Six-core Xeon 7400 Dual-core Itaniurn 20 Pentium D Presler POWERS 1,000,000,000 8 7 Broadwel-E 10-core Corg i7 Qualcomm Snapdragon 835 Dual-core GPU Ins Core i7 Broadwell-U 500,000,000 8o8 Quad-core + GPU GT2 Core i7 Skylake K Quad-core + GPU Core i7 Haswell Itanium 2 with 9 MB cache Itanium 2 Madison 6MO Pentium D Smithfield Itanium 2 Mckinleyo Pentium 4 Prescott-2M Core i7 (Quad) O AMD K10 quad-core 2M L3 Core 2 Duo Wolfdale Core 2 Duo Conroe Cell Core 2 Duo Wolfdale 3M OCore 2 Duo Allendale Pentium Apple A7 (dual-core ARM64 "mobile SoC") 100,000,000 AMD KB Pentium 4 Northwoode oBarton Pentium 4 Willamette ntium Tualatin 4 Cedar Ml 50,000,000 Pentium 4 Prescott Pentium II Mobile Dixono Pentium III Tualatin DAtom AMD K7O OPentium III Coppermine AMD K6- PARM Cortex-A9 10,000,000 5,000,000 AMD K6 Pentium Katmai Pentium IT Deschutes Pentium Pro Pentium OKlamath AMD K5 Pentiume SA-110 1,000,000 Intel 80486 R4000 500,000 TI Explorer's 32-bit Lisp machine chip ARM700 Intel 80386 Motorola 68020 O Intel ARM 3 100,000 Intel 80286 DEC WRL Multifitan 50,000 Motorola 68000 OIntel 80186 ARM . Intel 8086O O Intel 8088 OARM 2 ARM 1 ARM 6 Motorola 10,000 TMS 1000 6SC816 Zilog Z80 RCA 1802 ntel 8085 Intel 8080 Novix NC4016 5,000 65C02 Intel 8008 Motorola Technology 6800 Intel 4004 1,000 1970 1974 1986 2008 2014 2018 Data source: Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count) The data visualization is available at OurWorldinData.org. There you find more visualizations and research on this topic. Licensed under CC-BY-SA by the author Max Roser. Transistor count 1972 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2010 2012 2016
Transcribed Image Text:12-core Xeon Phi Centriq 2400 OGC2 IPU AMD KBO utum 4 Prenc 4 Cedar M Moore's Law – The number of transistors on integrated circuit chips (1971-2018) Moore's law describes the empirical regularity that the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years. This advancement is important as other aspects of technological progress – such as processing speed or the price of electronic products – are linked to Moore's law. Our World in Data 50,000,000,000 72-core Xeon Phi Centriq 2400 O GC2 IPU 10,000,000,000 SPARC M7. IBM 213 Storage Controller 18-core Xeon Haswell-E5 Xbox One main Soc 61-core Xeon Phị 12-core POWER 32-core AMD Epyc 5,000,000,000 Apple A12X Bionic Tegra Xavier SoC Qualcomm Snapdragon 8cx/SCXB180 8 HISilicon Kirin 980 + Apple A12 Bionic • o HISilicon Kirin 710 8-core Xeon Nehalem-EX Six-core Xeon 7400 Dual-core Itaniurn 20 Pentium D Presler POWERS 1,000,000,000 8 7 Broadwel-E 10-core Corg i7 Qualcomm Snapdragon 835 Dual-core GPU Ins Core i7 Broadwell-U 500,000,000 8o8 Quad-core + GPU GT2 Core i7 Skylake K Quad-core + GPU Core i7 Haswell Itanium 2 with 9 MB cache Itanium 2 Madison 6MO Pentium D Smithfield Itanium 2 Mckinleyo Pentium 4 Prescott-2M Core i7 (Quad) O AMD K10 quad-core 2M L3 Core 2 Duo Wolfdale Core 2 Duo Conroe Cell Core 2 Duo Wolfdale 3M OCore 2 Duo Allendale Pentium Apple A7 (dual-core ARM64 "mobile SoC") 100,000,000 AMD KB Pentium 4 Northwoode oBarton Pentium 4 Willamette ntium Tualatin 4 Cedar Ml 50,000,000 Pentium 4 Prescott Pentium II Mobile Dixono Pentium III Tualatin DAtom AMD K7O OPentium III Coppermine AMD K6- PARM Cortex-A9 10,000,000 5,000,000 AMD K6 Pentium Katmai Pentium IT Deschutes Pentium Pro Pentium OKlamath AMD K5 Pentiume SA-110 1,000,000 Intel 80486 R4000 500,000 TI Explorer's 32-bit Lisp machine chip ARM700 Intel 80386 Motorola 68020 O Intel ARM 3 100,000 Intel 80286 DEC WRL Multifitan 50,000 Motorola 68000 OIntel 80186 ARM . Intel 8086O O Intel 8088 OARM 2 ARM 1 ARM 6 Motorola 10,000 TMS 1000 6SC816 Zilog Z80 RCA 1802 ntel 8085 Intel 8080 Novix NC4016 5,000 65C02 Intel 8008 Motorola Technology 6800 Intel 4004 1,000 1970 1974 1986 2008 2014 2018 Data source: Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count) The data visualization is available at OurWorldinData.org. There you find more visualizations and research on this topic. Licensed under CC-BY-SA by the author Max Roser. Transistor count 1972 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2010 2012 2016
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