Given the following conditional value table, determine the appropriate decision assuming that each state of nature has an equal likelihood of occurring: States of Nature Alternatives Large plant Very Favorable Market $275,000 Average Market $100,000 Unfavorable Market - $150,000 Small plant Overtime Do nothing $200,000 $60,000 -$10,000 $100,000 $40,000 -$1,000 $0 $0 $0 The appropriate decision is to which has an EMV = $ (round your response to the nearest whole number).
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- 3. The manager for a manufacturing company must recommend whether to construct a large plant, construct a small plant or do nothing. He estimates the long-run profits in $ as follows: State of Nature Alternative Good Average Poor Market($) Market ($) Market ($) Construct a 100,000 35,000 -60,000 large plant Construct a 75,000 25,000 -40,000 small plant Do nothing -5,000 0 0 Probability 25% 50% 25% Solve using: A. Expected Opportunity Loss B. Expected Value of Perfect InformationDoing nothing would yield how much profit if favorable market conditions prevail according to the following profit decision table? Alternative Favorable Market Do Nothing $27,000 $12,000 $0 -$15,000 $27,000 Unfavorable Market -$15,000How would you go about attempting to come upwith the probability of a “super-event” or the probability of a“unique-event?” What factors would you consider?
- Very Favorable Average Market Unfavorable Alternatives Market Market Build new plant $250,000 $180.000 - S200,000 Subcontract $270.000 $185,000 - $220,000 Overtime S100.000 $50,000 - $12.000 Do Nothing SO SO $0 a) Using the decision making under uncertainty with the criterion of Maximax The appropriate decision will be The value of the return under this decision is $ b) Using the decision making under uncertainty with the criterion of Maximin The appropriate decision will be The value of the return under this decision is $ c) Using the decision making under uncertainty with the criterion of Equally Likely The appropriate decision will be The value of the return under this decision is $ (enter your answer as a whole number).Exclusive Footwear Ltd experiencing profit declining in recent times... In the light of the above research, suggest a list of variables (e.g. IV, DV, or MV), develop conceptual model, and discuss their nature and potential relation to each other with proper justification. Develop relevant hypothesis for the variables.Risk-neutral probabilities are always Select one: O equal to atomic prices O negative O less than physical probabilities O equal to physical probabilities O equal to forward atomic prices
- A. A company wants to produce a souvenir with a marketing life of six months. Uncertainty surrounds the likely sales volume as well as the fixed costs of the venture as shown below: Sales units Probability Contrn. /unit Probability Fixed cost K7 K5 100 000 0.3 80 000 0.6 60 000 0.1 1.0 0.5 0.5 1.0 Determine the expected value of the contribution K400 000 K450 000 K500 000 Probability 0.2 0.5 0.3 1.0Cost Planning; Gasoline Prices In June 2008, when gasoline prices were at an all-time high(more than $4 per gallon), Chrysler Motor Company promoted its Jeep vehicle with the offer of either$4,500 off the price of the vehicle or the guarantee that the buyer would not pay more than $2.99 pergallon of gas for the next 3 years (the details of the guarantee could vary by dealer).Required1. Assume that the Jeep vehicle you are interested in gets 15 mpg combined city/highway and that at thetime of purchase, you expected gasoline prices to average $5 per gallon over the next 3 years. How manymiles would you have to drive the vehicle in the next 3 years to make the guarantee more attractive thanthe $4,500 discount?The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): Decision State of Nature Alternative Low Demand (S1) Medium Demand (S2) High Demand )S3) Manufacture, d(1) -20 40 100 Purchase, d(2) 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P s1= 0.35, P s2= 0.35, and P s3= 0.30 Use expected value to recommend a decision.
- The number of people visiting the hospital emergency room for chest pains increased as the stock market dropped in 2008 & 2009. The drop in the stock market is probably partly responsible for this increase. Two Things Being Correlated (in the premises) : How They're Purportedly Correlated: Conclusion Argued For (in the conclusion) : Any Plausible Alternate Explanations? (yes or no) : If so, what? (spurious coincidence, common cause, reversed) : Explain this Alternate Explanation: Overall Quality of Argument (good or bad) :Calculate the EUAC of a company If P = 1000$, n = 10 years and i = 10%. Select one: O a. 163$ O b. 160$ O c. 150$Sun TV sells TV sets. It does not sell smart TVs so customers do not come to Sun TV if they want to purchase smart TVs. Sun TV wants to start selling smart TVs and will only sell smart TVs to customers to whom they advertise. Managers use customer information (income level, previous purchase history) to decide which customers they should target. The team needs to decide how sure it must be in predicting customer interest in a smart TV. If it is too cautious, it will choose a very high cutoff probability and only market to customers who it believes are very likely to be in the market for a smart TV. This may cause them to miss out on many customers. If they are too aggressive and choose a low cutoff probability, they may identify more individuals interested in buying smart TVs but also end up wasting marketing dollars on customers who are not interested in purchasing smart TVs. To choose a cutoff probability, the team develops the confusion matrices below for two cutoff probabilities on…