How would you choose the appropriate number of factors to use in a forecasting model and how would you build a factor augmented VAR.
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A: The Delphi method is more qualitative. The Delphi method was developed by the Rank corporation in…
Q: Choose the type of forecasting technique (survey, Delphi, averaging, seasonal, naive, trend,…
A: Delphi Technique of forecasting would be appropriate to predict the demand for vacations on the…
Q: Choose the type of forecasting technique (survey, Delphi, averaging, seasonal, naive, trend,…
A: Forecasting techniques are used to predict the future on the basis of past and present data.…
Q: Which are the QUALITATIVE TECHNIQUES IN FORECASTING?
A: Forecasting is the process of identifying the demand accurately for future production planning and…
Q: Complete the forecasting worksheets for: Naïve Average Moving Average Weighted Moving Average using…
A: Weighted Moving Average using the weights of .8, .15, and .05 ExponA use an alpha level of .75ExponB…
Q: What are the similarities and differences between ridge regression and forecasting?
A: A Small Introduction about Regression Regression analysis is used to predict a continuous dependent…
Q: b. Use the least-squares regression method to derive a forecasting equation. c. What is your…
A: Since you have posted a question with multiple sub-parts, we will solve the first three subparts for…
Q: Table 3 Percent change in income Percent Change in appliance sold Quarter Percent change in income…
A: (a) Here, the relationship between two variables needs to be identified, so a linear regression…
Q: What are the basic assumptions made when using time series forecasting techniques as opposed to…
A: Stationarity: The first assumption is that the series of data points are stationary. The series is…
Q: What advantages does exponential smoothing have over movingcaverages as a forecasting tool?
A: The following are the benefits of exponential smoothing as a forecasting tool over moving averages.…
Q: Identify the three forecasting time horizons. State anapproximate duration for each.
A: With the help of forecasting we can predict what will be happing in the future. It can be done by…
Q: Using your own words, describe the drawbacks of the moving average forecasting model and the…
A: Definitions Moving average: - A forecast which is made by taking the average or weighted average of…
Q: What factors would you consider in deciding whether to use wide or narrow control limits for…
A: Control limits refer to those limits within which all the data values are acceptable by the…
Q: Explain what are the use of a time series forecasting and discuss what assumption are made ?
A: Globalization is the process of bringing together individuals, businesses, and governments on a…
Q: What does the word "biassed" mean when applied to a specific forecasting technique?
A: Forecasting is a common and widely used methodology in almost every area of endeavor, including…
Q: What is a time series and the rationale for forecasting based on a time series analysis?
A: Forecasting refers to the prediction of the future based on some evidence or a strong base.…
Q: What does the term biased mean in reference to a particular forecasting technique?
A: The forecasting techniques are used for predicting the future demand and sales of the product. The…
Q: If the Tracking Signal for your forecast was consistently positive, what could you then say this…
A: If the tracking signal of the forecast is always positive, then it is bias and consistently too low.…
Q: Discuss when is time series forecasting used?
A: Forecasting is a strategy for forecasting future events using historical data and knowledge.
Q: Identify the major differences between qualitative and quantitative forecasting.
A: Forecasting can be defined as the technique which predicts the future information based on…
Q: There are two general approaches to forecasting, What are they?
A: Forecasting is a very important part of the organization. Forecasting is based on external forces…
Q: Describe in detail what is a time series forecasting model ?
A: Forecasting is a type of prediction approach that can be used to make future judgments based on past…
Q: Choose one qualitative forecasting technique from the following. O a. Regression analysis O b.…
A: Find the answers below: The Correct Answer is b) Market research
Q: List three qualitative forecasting methods and discuss one of them in details.
A: Qualitative forecasting techniques depend on immeasurable data like views & intuition. The…
Q: Explain the methods that are used to develop the forecasting methodology
A: Forecasting is a continuous activity that the business employs in both the short term and long term.…
Q: Which qualitative forecasting technique was developed to ensure that the input fromevery participant…
A: Forecasting is the way toward making forecasts of things to depend on at various times information…
Q: The manager of a large manufacturer of industrial pumps must choose between two alternative…
A: Both techniques have been used to prepare forecasts for a six month period as follows:
Q: Describe the ASSOCIATIVE FORECASTING TECHNIQUES?
A: Associative forecasting is the technique of forecasting which uses several independent variables as…
Q: Explain the distinction between short- and long-term forecasts?
A: Forecasting is a technique that enables the generation of educated forecasts by utilising historical…
Q: Can you tell the difference between "correct" and "true" when it comes to forecasting?
A: Forecasting is important in supply chain management because the production and inventory process of…
Q: What three methods are used to determine the accuracy of any given forecasting method? How would you…
A: Forecasting is the process of making assumptions of future events based on past and present…
Q: Explain the nature of forecasting when it's periods are farthest into the future in forecasting ?
A: To be determined: the nature of forecasting when it's periods are farthest into the future in…
Q: Explain 4 methods of judgmental technique in forecasting
A: There several methods used for forecasting in business. Business is full of risk and uncertainty. To…
Q: What is 'forecasting error'? What are the metrics used in measuring forecasting errors?
A: Forecasting Error A prediction error is the difference between the actual or real value of a time…
Q: List the analytical tools and methods used in forecasting?
A: Forecasting is the process of making assumptions of the future on the basis of past and present data…
Q: guide with reasons for the company to use appropriate forecasting models.
A: Organizations use the forecasting technique to help them develop corporate plans and strategies. In…
Q: Write from your understanding the meaning of forecasting, forecasting time horizons, Seven Steps in…
A: Forecasting is a procedure that utilizations verifiable information as contributions to make…
Q: What are the quarter 3 forecasts for 2014 using linear trend?
A: THE ANSWER IS AS BELOW:
Q: Why the following Approaches are used in forecasting, how would you interpret them what do they mean…
A: Forecasting is a technique that a marketer uses to estimate various things like a trend, future…
Q: what is the main difference between casual methods and time series methods used in forecasting?…
A: This question is related to the topic of the forecasting approach and this topic falls under the…
Q: State and explain the value of seasonala indices in forecasting and how are seasonal patterns…
A: To be determined: State and explain the value of seasonal indices in forecasting and how are…
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- The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.The owner of a restaurant in Bloomington, Indiana, has recorded sales data for the past 19 years. He has also recorded data on potentially relevant variables. The data are listed in the file P13_17.xlsx. a. Estimate a simple regression equation involving annual sales (the dependent variable) and the size of the population residing within 10 miles of the restaurant (the explanatory variable). Interpret R-square for this regression. b. Add another explanatory variableannual advertising expendituresto the regression equation in part a. Estimate and interpret this expanded equation. How does the R-square value for this multiple regression equation compare to that of the simple regression equation estimated in part a? Explain any difference between the two R-square values. How can you use the adjusted R-squares for a comparison of the two equations? c. Add one more explanatory variable to the multiple regression equation estimated in part b. In particular, estimate and interpret the coefficients of a multiple regression equation that includes the previous years advertising expenditure. How does the inclusion of this third explanatory variable affect the R-square, compared to the corresponding values for the equation of part b? Explain any changes in this value. What does the adjusted R-square for the new equation tell you?The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?
- What forecasting techniques are used in the management of technology and innovation?The file P13_29.xlsx contains monthly time series data for total U.S. retail sales of building materials (which includes retail sales of building materials, hardware and garden supply stores, and mobile home dealers). a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern. b. Use Winters method to forecast this series with smoothing constants = = 0.1 and = 0.3. Does the forecast series seem to track the seasonal pattern well? What are your forecasts for the next 12 months?The file P13_26.xlsx contains the monthly number of airline tickets sold by the CareFree Travel Agency. a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think will provide the best forecasting model? Why? b. Use simple exponential smoothing to forecast these data, using a smoothing constant of 0.1. c. Repeat part b, but search for the smoothing constant that makes RMSE as small as possible. Does it make much of an improvement over the model in part b?
- The file P13_28.xlsx contains monthly retail sales of U.S. liquor stores. a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern. b. Use Winters method to forecast this series with smoothing constants = = 0.1 and = 0.3. Does the forecast series seem to track the seasonal pattern well? What are your forecasts for the next 12 months?The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?The file P13_02.xlsx contains five years of monthly data on sales (number of units sold) for a particular company. The company suspects that except for random noise, its sales are growing by a constant percentage each month and will continue to do so for at least the near future. a. Explain briefly whether the plot of the series visually supports the companys suspicion. b. By what percentage are sales increasing each month? c. What is the MAPE for the forecast model in part b? In words, what does it measure? Considering its magnitude, does the model seem to be doing a good job? d. In words, how does the model make forecasts for future months? Specifically, given the forecast value for the last month in the data set, what simple arithmetic could you use to obtain forecasts for the next few months?
- Do the sales prices of houses in a given community vary systematically with their sizes (as measured in square feet)? Answer this question by estimating a simple regression equation where the sales price of the house is the dependent variable, and the size of the house is the explanatory variable. Use the sample data given in P13_06.xlsx. Interpret your estimated equation, the associated R-square value, and the associated standard error of estimate.Explain the trade off between responsiveness and consistency in a time series forecasting system?What does the term "adaptive forecasting" mean?