Consider the MA(1) series X, = W, + 0.5W-1, where W, ~ WN (0,1). Please use theInnovation Algorithm to give the one-step-ahead prediction X = P,X for n = 1,2,3,and 4. Is 0, closer to 0.5 for n=4?n+1

Answered: Image /qna-images/answer/f4c92a43-bdbf-49e7-b2bf-8d8cfff930db.jpg

Answered: Innovation Algorithm to give the…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter14: Data Mining

Section14.2: Classification Methods

Problem 11P

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Use Excels functions (not @RISK) to generate 1000 random numbers from a normal distribution with mean 100 and standard deviation 10. Then freeze these random numbers. a. Calculate the mean and standard deviation of these random numbers. Are they approximately what you would expect? b. What fraction of these random numbers are within k standard deviations of the mean? Answer for k = 1; for k = 2; for k = 3. Are the answers close to what they should be (about 68% for k = 1, about 95% for k = 2, and over 99% for k = 3)? c. Create a histogram of the random numbers using about 10 bins of your choice. Does this histogram have approximately the shape you would expect?
Dilberts Department Store is trying to determine how many Hanson T-shirts to order. Currently the shirts are sold for 21, but at later dates the shirts will be offered at a 10% discount, then a 20% discount, then a 40% discount, then a 50% discount, and finally a 60% discount. Demand at the full price of 21 is believed to be normally distributed with mean 1800 and standard deviation 360. Demand at various discounts is assumed to be a multiple of full-price demand. These multiples, for discounts of 10%, 20%, 40%, 50%, and 60% are, respectively, 0.4, 0.7, 1.1, 2, and 50. For example, if full-price demand is 2500, then at a 10% discount customers would be willing to buy 1000 T-shirts. The unit cost of purchasing T-shirts depends on the number of T-shirts ordered, as shown in the file P10_36.xlsx. Use simulation to determine how many T-shirts the company should order. Model the problem so that the company first orders some quantity of T-shirts, then discounts deeper and deeper, as necessary, to sell all of the shirts.
Suppose that a regional express delivery service company wants to estimate the cost of shipping a package (Y) as a function of cargo type, where cargo type includes the following possibilities: fragile, semifragile, and durable. Costs for 15 randomly chosen packages of approximately the same weight and same distance shipped, but of different cargo types, are provided in the file P13_16.xlsx. a. Estimate a regression equation using the given sample data, and interpret the estimated regression coefficients. b. According to the estimated regression equation, which cargo type is the most costly to ship? Which cargo type is the least costly to ship? c. How well does the estimated equation fit the given sample data? How might the fit be improved? d. Given the estimated regression equation, predict the cost of shipping a package with semifragile cargo.
Use @RISK to draw a binomial distribution that results from 50 trials with probability of success 0.3 on each trial, and use it to answer the following questions. a. What are the mean and standard deviation of this distribution? b. You have to be more careful in interpreting @RISK probabilities with a discrete distribution such as this binomial. For example, if you move the left slider to 11, you find a probability of 0.139 to the left of it. But is this the probability of less than 11 or less than or equal to 11? One way to check is to use Excels BINOM.DIST function. Use this function to interpret the 0.139 value from @RISK. c. Using part b to guide you, use @RISK to find the probability that a random number from this distribution will be greater than 17. Check your answer by using the BINOM.DIST function appropriately in Excel.
Given a normal distribution with μ= 105 and σ = 20, and given you select a sample of n = 16, complete parts (a) through (d). a. What is the probability that X is less than 92? P(X<92) 0.0047 (Type an integer or decimal rounded to four decimal places as needed.) b. What is the probability that X is between 92 and 93.5? P(92 X 93.5)= 0.0061 (Type an integer or decimal rounded to four decimal places as needed.) c. What is the probability that X is above 105.2? P(X 105.2)= 0.4840 (Type an integer or decimal rounded to four decimal places as needed.) d. There is a 67% chance that X is above what value? X = (Type an integer or decimal rounded to two decimal places as needed.)
4. ABC Dog Food Company located in Ottawa sells large bags of dog food to warehouse clubs. ABC uses an automatic filling process to fill the bags. Weights of the filled bags are approximately normally distributed with a mean of 50 kilograms and a standard deviation of 1.25 kilograms. (a) What is the probability that a filled bag will weigh less than 49.5 kilograms? (b) What is the probability that a randomly sampled filled bag will weigh between 48.5 and 51 kilograms? (c) What is the minimum weight a bag of dog food could be and remain in the top 15% of all bags filled? (d) ABC is unable to adjust the mean of the filling process. However, it is able to adjust the standard deviation of the filling process. What would the standard deviation need to be so that 2% of all filled bags weigh more than 52 kilograms?
For the next 6 numbers: Refer to the Management Scientist output of a maximization LP problem. The constraints are defined as follows: Constraint 1: advertising budget ( ) Constraint 2: sales force availability ( ) Constraint 3: production level (=) Constraint 4: retail stores requirement ( ) Optimal Solution Objective Function Value - Variable. Constraint X1 X2 X1 X2 X3 X4 X3 X4 1 2 Variable 1 2 3 3 4 OBJECTIVE COEFFICIENT RANGES 4 Constraint RIGHT HAND SIDE RANGES Value Slack/Surplus Lover Limit 25.000 425.000 150.000 0.000 84.000 50.000 No Lover Linit No Lover Linit Lover Limit 48450.000 0.000 25.000 0.000 0.000 4950.000 1775.000 515.000 0.000 Reduced Costs Dual Prices Current Value 90.000 84.000 70.000 60.000 Current Value 0.000 0.000 0.000 45.000 5000.000 1800.000 600.000 150.000 3.000 0.000 60.000 -17.000 Upper Limit No Upper Linit 90.000 87.000 105.000 Upper Linit 5850.000 No Upper Limit 603.571 200.000
The mean annual earning for U.S. workers with advanced degrees is $80,977 with a standard deviation of $100,895; the distribution is highly right-skewed. Use this information to answer questions 7 to 10 below. A random sample of n = 86 workers is drawn, and their annual earnings recorded. What is the expected value of the sample mean of their annual earnings? What is the standard deviation of the sample mean of their annual earnings? what is the probability that the sample mean is at least $100,000? The actual sample mean earnings for the random sample of 86 workers with advanced degrees was $82,105. What is the sampling error?
4.1 TYPES OF RANDOM VARIABLES. Which of the following describe continuous random variables? Which describe discrete random variables? The number of newspapers sold by the New York Times each month The amount of ink used in printing a Sunday edition of the New York Times The actual number of ounces in a 1-gallon bottle of laundry detergent The number of defective parts in a shipment of nuts and bolts The number of people collecting unemployment insurance each month
Compared to the area between z = 1.00 and z = 1.25, the area between z = 2.00 and z = 2.25 in the standard normal distribution will be: A- smaller B- larger C- the same D- impossible to compare without knowing μ and σ
1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 V [ Select ] 0.5 0.4 Uniform distribution 0.3 0.2 Normal distribution 0.1 Exponential distribution 1 4 5 6 7 8. 9. 10 Observation Cumulative Probability
From several years’ records, a fish market manager has determined that the weight of deep sea bream sold in the market (X), is approximately normally distributed with a mean of 500 grams and a standard deviation of 100 grams. Assuming this distribution will remain unchanged in the future, the expected proportions of deep sea bream sold over the next year weighing .(i) Between 300 grams and 400 grams is A. 0.1359 B. 0.4681 C. 0.5319 D. None of the options above

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