Letz Products has two decisions to make, with the second decision dependent on the outcome of the first. The company intends to build a new plant. Letz has the option of conducting its own marketing research survey for which the results will either be positive or negative. The information from this survey could help it decide whether to build a large plant, to build a small plant, or not to build at all. Letz recognizes that although such a survey will not provide it with perfect information, it may be extremely helpful. 1st decision point $49,200 Survey 2nd decision point Sur. Res. Pos. (45) Sur. Res. Neg. (.55) No survey $106,400 $2,400 $40,000 Large plant Small $63,600 3 plant No plant $106,000 No plant Large plant Small $2,400 plant 5 Large plant Small plant No plant -$87,400 (4) $10,000 6 $40,000 Fav. Mkt (0.78) Unfav. Mkt (0.22) Fav. Mkt (0.78) Unfav. Mkt (0.22) Fav. Mkt (0.27) Unfav. Mkt (0.73) Fav. Mkt (0.27) Unfav. Mkt (0.73) Fav. Mkt (0.5) Unfav. Mkt (0.5) Fav. Mkt (0.5) Unfav. Mkt (0.5) $190,000 -$190,000 $90,000 $30,000 $10.000 $190,000 -$190,000 $90,000 $30,000 $10,000 $200,000 -$180,000 $100,000 $20,000 $0

Marketing
20th Edition
ISBN:9780357033791
Author:Pride, William M
Publisher:Pride, William M
Chapter6: Target Markets: Segmentation And Evaluation
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 17DRQ: Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?
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Using figure 1 – explain to your client (Letz) what the above decision tree shows. Show all working.
Letz Products has two decisions to make, with the second decision dependent on the outcome
of the first. The company intends to build a new plant. Letz has the option of conducting its
own marketing research survey for which the results will either be positive or negative. The
information from this survey could help it decide whether to build a large plant, to build a small
plant, or not to build at all. Letz recognizes that although such a survey will not provide it with
perfect information, it may be extremely helpful.
1st decision
point
Survey
2nd decision point
Sur. Res.
Pos. (45)
Sur. Res.
Neg. (.55)
No survey
$40,000
Large plant
Small $63,600
3
plant
No plant
Large plant
No plant
$106,000
Small $2,400
plant
Large plant
Small
plant
No plant
-$87,400
$10,000
$40,000
Fav. Mkt (0.78)
Unfav. Mkt (0.22)
Fav. Mkt (0.78)
Unfav. Mkt (0.22)
Fav. Mkt (0.27)
Unfav. Mkt (0.73)
Fav. Mkt (0.27)
Unfav. Mkt (0.73)
Fav. Mkt (0.5)
Unfav. Mkt (0.5)
Fav. Mkt (0.5)
Unfav. Mkt (0.5)
$190,000
-$190,000
$90,000
$30,000
$10.000
$190,000
-$190,000
$90,000
$30,000
$10,0
$200,000
-$180,000
$100,000
$20,000
$0
Transcribed Image Text:Letz Products has two decisions to make, with the second decision dependent on the outcome of the first. The company intends to build a new plant. Letz has the option of conducting its own marketing research survey for which the results will either be positive or negative. The information from this survey could help it decide whether to build a large plant, to build a small plant, or not to build at all. Letz recognizes that although such a survey will not provide it with perfect information, it may be extremely helpful. 1st decision point Survey 2nd decision point Sur. Res. Pos. (45) Sur. Res. Neg. (.55) No survey $40,000 Large plant Small $63,600 3 plant No plant Large plant No plant $106,000 Small $2,400 plant Large plant Small plant No plant -$87,400 $10,000 $40,000 Fav. Mkt (0.78) Unfav. Mkt (0.22) Fav. Mkt (0.78) Unfav. Mkt (0.22) Fav. Mkt (0.27) Unfav. Mkt (0.73) Fav. Mkt (0.27) Unfav. Mkt (0.73) Fav. Mkt (0.5) Unfav. Mkt (0.5) Fav. Mkt (0.5) Unfav. Mkt (0.5) $190,000 -$190,000 $90,000 $30,000 $10.000 $190,000 -$190,000 $90,000 $30,000 $10,0 $200,000 -$180,000 $100,000 $20,000 $0
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