Q1 Actual Forecast 2023 2023 69 72.4 67 66.9 61 59.5 59 61.2 256 260 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Obtain the MAD -4 7.2 1.8 -1
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- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?Week Sales1 27502 31003 32504 28005 29006 30507 33008 31009 295010 300011 320012 3150Develop a three-week moving average. A.What is the forecast for week 5? (Make sure no decimal place and no comma. EX: 1234) B.What is the value of MSE (mean squared error) with regard to a three-week moving average? (Make sure no decimal place and no comma. EX: 1234) C.Develop the exponential smoothing with the alpha value of 0.20. What is the forecast for week 5? (Make sure no decimal place and no comma. EX: 1234) D.What is the value of MSE (mean squared error) with regard to the exponential smoothing? (Make sure no decimal place and no comma. EX: 1234) E.Which method is more accurate? (1 for Moving average, 2 for Exponential Smoothing)Interpret the MAD of the most accurate among the forecasting models below. A. Naïve approach;B. 5-month SMA model;C. WMA model with weights 0.1, 0.3, and 0.6; orD. ES model with α = 0.5 and a forecast of 3,500 liters in the first month.
- Problem 4- do both a three period moving average and an exponential smoothing forecast with an alpha of .2. Calculate the MAD and MPE for each. Months Actuals 1 400 2. 350 3 325 4. 300 300 6. 285 7. 290Given an actual demand of 103, a previous forecast value of 99, and an alpha of .4, the exponential smoothing forecast for the next period would be a. 100.6 b. 101.4 c. 94.6 d. 101.6Given November actual demand of 61, November forecast of 58, and an alpha of 0.4, November trend value +1.03, Beta of 0.3 what would the forecast including trend (FIT) for the December period be using exponential smoothing model 2? Select one: a. 62.03 b. cannot be found c. 68.76 d. 65.72
- Prepare a graph of the monthly forecasts and average forecast demand for Chicago Paint Corp., a manufacturer of specialized paint for artists. Compute the demand per day for each month (round your responses to one decimal place). Month January February March April May June July August September 222 22 2 2 2 2 Production Days 23 Demand Forecast Demand per Day 950 19 1,050 21 1,250 20 1,350 23 1,200 20 1,300 22 1,250 21 1,150 21 1,150 October 21 1,000 November 21 1,000 December 19 9506. Consider the following data table. (12 Points) a) Forecast demand using exponential smoothing with an apha of 0.25, and an initial forecast of 128.0 for period 1. b) Calculate the MAD and MSE. Period Real demand 130 138 129 140 3 4 5 133Given the Actual Demand from January to June of 2021, along with the forecasts based on three (3) selected methods. JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN Actual 960 1,230 1,520 1,350 1,800 1,920 Method 1 1,308 1,073 1,150 1,467 1,425 1,682 Method 2 1,324 1,215 1,219 1,310 1,322 1,465 Method 3 867 979 1,340 1,330 1,930 2,524 From the different methods, which is best? 1, 2, or 3? py What is the MAD value of the best method? What is the MSE value of the best method? What is the MAPE value of the best method? Answer using two decimal places.
- 9. A time-series trend equation is 25.3 + 21x. What is your forecast for period 7? Part 2 A. 172.3 B. 324.1 C. 32.3 D. 25.3 E. 40.0Home-Style Cookies tracks monthly sales by type of cookie, see the following table. Month Chocolate Chip (000 units) Peanut Butter (000 units) Filled (000 units) Feb. 19 15 10 Mar. 18 14 9 Apr. 15 11 8 May 20 16 11 Jun. 18 14 10 Jul. 22 18 12 Aug. 20 16 10 Sep. Create a line chart in Excel showing monthly sales by type of cookies (each type will have its own line); then, forecast September sales volume for chocolate chip cookies using each of the following: the naïve approach; a 5-month moving average; a weighted average using .60 for August, .30 for July, and .10 for June; and a linear trend equation.An electrical contractor's records during the last five weeks indicate the number of job requests: Week: Requests: 1 2 3 5 25 27 25 26 27 Click here for the Excel Data File Predict the number of requests for week 6 using each of these methods: a. Naive. Number of requests b. A four-perlod moving average. (Round your answer to 2 decimal places.) Number of requests
