Suppose that for years East Campus' short-run Phillips Curve was such that each 1 percentage point increase in its unemployment rate was associated with a 2-percentage point decline in its inflation rate. Then, during several recent years, the short-run pattern changed such that its inflation rate rose by 3 percentage points for every 1 percentage point drop in its unemployment rate. Graphically, did East Campus' Phillips Curve shift upward or did it shift downward?
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- Sales of new houses and three-month lagged unemployment are shown in the following table. Determine if unemployment levels can be used to predict demand for new houses and, if so, derive a predictive equation. Period ........... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Units sold ........ 20 41 17 35 25 31 38 50 15 19 14 Unemployment % (three-month lag) 7.2 4.0 7.3 5.5 6.8 6.0 5.4 3.6 8.4 7.0 9.0Maximax, Maximin, Minimax RegretLearning material: Watch this videoLab Scenario:Imagine a local entrepreneur is considering starting a business and has three options: open a coffeeshop, a bookshop, or a fusion coffee-bookshop. The entrepreneur is uncertain about the market'sreaction to these businesses. The possible market conditions are: favorable, neutral, and unfavorable.Data (Payoff Table in USD):Business Option Favorable Market Neutral Market Unfavorable MarketCoffee Shop 150,000 70,000 -30,000Bookshop 100,000 60,000 -20,000Fusion Shop 130,000 80,000 -10,000Positive values represent profits, and negative values represent losses.Assignment Steps:1. Maximax (Optimist's Criterion) Approach:For each business option, identify the maximum possible payoff.First Question What is the business option with the highest of these maximum payoffs? (5points)2. Maximin (Pessimist's Criterion) Approach:For each business option, identify the minimum possible payoff.Second Question What is the…As manager for a retail store, you have to order new stock. There are three ranges to choose from: luxury, middle of the range and inexpensive. The strategic decision on which range to buy depends on the economic outlook for the season, but the economic forecasts are uncertain. Historical data shows that the expected profits are: Profit pay- offs Economic outlook Strategies Good Average Bad 1. Buy luxury range 100,000 40,000 −80,000 2. Buy middle of range 70,750 60,000 −30,200 3. Buy inexpensive range −20,200 50,500 50,000 Figure 1Pay-off table of profits Use the Laplace criterion to make a decision. Use the Wald criterion to make a decision. Use the maximax criterion to make a decision. Use the maximin criterion to make a decision. Compare and discuss the results.
- 4. A portfoho manager believes that tomorrow s foreign exchange of the Euro per US dollar will be nomally distributed with mean 2.03 and standard deviation 0.08. Using the manager's mumbers, answer the following questions: a What is the probability that tomorrow's rate will be above 2.08? b. What is the probability that tomorrow s rate will be below 1.87? What is the probability that tomorrow's rate will be between 2.00 and 2.20? a. C. 5. A student is guessing on a ten question multiple choice quiz, the probability of guessing correctly on the each question is .20. What is the probability that the student gets exactly 2 questions right? What is the probability that she would guess more than less than four questions right? 1S 6. An investment has probabilities 0.1, 0.2,0.35, 0.25 and 0.1 of giving returns equal to 40%, 30%, 15%, 5% and -15%. What is the expected retum and standard deviation of returns? 7. The holders of an insurance policy file clams at an average rate of 0.45 per year.…Discussed and analyzed the relationship between exports and GDP in Qatar using1. Statistical descriptive analysis 2- time series analysis YEAR GDP (current US$) Exports of goods and services (current US$) 2000 17.76 11.95 2001 17.54 11.56 2002 19.36 11.68 2003 23.53 14.52 2004 31.73 20.36 2005 44.53 28.98 2006 60.88 38.24 2007 79.71 48.05 2008 115.27 70.73 2009 97.80 50.01 2010 125.12 77.98 2011 167.78 121.84 2012 186.83 142.88 2013 198.73 144.51 2014 206.22 140.23 2015 161.74 92.29 2016 151.73 72.40 2017 161.10 85.20 2018 183.33 102.56 2019 175.84 92.05 2020 146.37 70.93Consider the following information: Economy Recession Normal Boom Probability of State of Economy .23 .58 .19 Rate of Return if State Occurs Stock B a. Expected return of A Expected return of B b. Standard deviation of A Standard deviation of B Stock A .025 .105 .270 a. Calculate the expected return for the two stocks. Note: Do not round intermediate calculations and enter your answers as a percent rounded to 2 decimal places, e.g., 32.16. b. Calculate the standard deviation for the two stocks. Note: Do not round intermediate calculations and enter your answers as a percent rounded to 2 decimal places, e.g., 32.16. -.38 .28 .51 % % % %
- Situation 1 You want to start an online clothing store and need information about the size of the market for the marketing section of your business plan. From an online search, you found that Americans spent $18.3 billion online for apparel, accessories, and footwear last year and that the forecast for their spending on these items in the coming year is $22.1 billion. You have also researched publicly traded apparel companies, like GAP, to discover trends in online sales for these firms. Situation 2 You recently visited with a friend who knew you had taken a small business course when you attended college. During your visit, she made the comment, “I plan to open a business this summer. I won't be applying for a bank loan to fund this company, so I don't have a business plan. Do I need one?” Situation 3 John Martin and John Rose decided to start a new business to manufacture noncarbonated soft drinks. They believed that their location, close to high-quality water, would give them a…ro forma income statement. Given the income statement , for California Cement Company for 2013 and an expected sales growth rate of 6.67% for 2014, prepare a pro forma income statement for 2014. First, find the percentage of each income statement line from 2013 as a percent of sales. (Round to three decimal places.) California Cement Company Income Statement for 2013 Sales revenue $ 22,869,000 Cost of goods sold $ -11,637,000 Selling, general, and administrative expenses $ -3,993,000 Depreciation expenses $ -1,331,000 EBIT $ 5,908,000 Interest expense $ -175,000 Taxable income $ 5,733,000 Taxes $ -2,512,462 Net income $ 3,220,538 What is the sales forecast for 2014? (Round to the nearest dollar.) The pro forma income statement for 2014 is: (Round to the nearest dollar.) California Cement Company Pro Forma Income Statement for 2014 Sales revenue $ ? 100.00% Cost of goods sold $ ? 50.885 %…MSC Global Shipping Company Tax Rate COMPARITIVE INCOME STATEMENT 30% for years ended 31 December 2021 Increased by 3/4% 2022 Revenues and gains *Sales revenue 179,000 75% 313,250 *Interest revenue 414,000 75% 724,500 *Investment Income 48,100 75% 84,175 *Other revenue 106,730 75% 186,778 Total revenue and gains $747,830 $1,308,703 Expenses and losses Decreased by 1/2% **Cost of goods sold 450,000 50% 225,000 **Selling and admin administrative 31,540 50% 15,770 ***Computer (operating) 75,000 50% 37,500 **Depreciation 36,500 50% 18,250 **Interest expense 39,000 50% 19,500 Total expenses and losses $ 632,040 $316,020 Income before taxes 115,790 992,683 Income tax expense (30%) 34,737 297,805 Net…
- 20. The Video Game Supply Company (VGS) is deciding whether to set next year's production at 2000, 2500, or 3000 games. Demand could be low, medium, or high. Using historical data, VGS estimates the probabilities as: 0.4 for low demand, 0.3 for medium demand, and 0.3 for high demand. The following profit payoff table (in $100s) has been developed. Demand Production Target Low Medium High 2000 games 2500 games 3000 games 1000 1200 1400 800 1500 1300 600 1700 1400 (a) [1] What is the maximax decision alternative? (b) [1] What is the maximin decision alternative? (c) [2] Determine the expected value of each alternative and indicate what should be the production target for next year based on expected value. (d) [1] Determine the expected value with perfect information about the states of nature. (e) [1] Determine the expected value of perfect information.. A business owner is planning to strategize his company's growth. He can either buy, rent, or lease a new factory depending on how the business is doing. He was given the following payoff table based on whether the business is doing good or the business is slow. Alternative Business Doing Good Business is Slow Buy 90 -10 Rent 70 40 Lease 60 55 The probability of business doing good is 0.7 and the probability of slow business is 0.3. Using Laplace's method, the best strategy is: Lease Buy Rent Do nothingExplain how you will predict as accurately as possible the new supply of housing in your city for the next five years.