Suppose that in a study of 35 million HPV shots examined, the shots were followed in time by 14,000 serious ailments and 32 confirmed deaths. However, suppose in examining a randomly selected control group of 35 million non-vaccinated people of the same age at a particular time A, 0.0413% developed a serious ailment soon after time A, and 0.000089% died soon after time A. What does the comparison of two groups tell us? What are the percentages in the vaccinated group (serious ailments and confirmed deaths), and how to they compare to the nonvaccinated group? Hint: compute the percentages for serious ailments (14,000/35,000,000) and confirmed deaths (32/35,000,000) for the vaccinated group. Compare with the control group. Notice % above. (0,0413% and 0.000089%) Answer here. What can we conclude with high probability, if this comparison between vaccinated and non-vaccinated groups was done many times with the same basic results? Answer here. Can we absolutely rule out that the HPV shot caused the daughter’s mental retardation? Yes? No? Explain. Answer here.
Continuous Probability Distributions
Probability distributions are of two types, which are continuous probability distributions and discrete probability distributions. A continuous probability distribution contains an infinite number of values. For example, if time is infinite: you could count from 0 to a trillion seconds, billion seconds, so on indefinitely. A discrete probability distribution consists of only a countable set of possible values.
Normal Distribution
Suppose we had to design a bathroom weighing scale, how would we decide what should be the range of the weighing machine? Would we take the highest recorded human weight in history and use that as the upper limit for our weighing scale? This may not be a great idea as the sensitivity of the scale would get reduced if the range is too large. At the same time, if we keep the upper limit too low, it may not be usable for a large percentage of the population!
Suppose that in a study of 35 million HPV shots examined, the shots were followed in time by 14,000 serious ailments and 32 confirmed deaths. However, suppose in examining a randomly selected control group of 35 million non-vaccinated people of the same age at a particular time A, 0.0413% developed a serious ailment soon after time A, and 0.000089% died soon after time A.
What does the comparison of two groups tell us? What are the percentages in the vaccinated group (serious ailments and confirmed deaths), and how to they compare to the nonvaccinated group?
Hint: compute the percentages for serious ailments (14,000/35,000,000) and confirmed deaths (32/35,000,000) for the vaccinated group. Compare with the control group. Notice % above. (0,0413% and 0.000089%)
Answer here.
What can we conclude with high probability, if this comparison between vaccinated and non-vaccinated groups was done many times with the same basic results?
Answer here.
Can we absolutely rule out that the HPV shot caused the daughter’s mental retardation? Yes? No? Explain.
Answer here.
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