(T/F) A smoothing constant of .1 will cause an exponential smoothing forecast to react more quickly to a sudden change than a value of .3 will.
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- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?QUESTION 2:The manager of YTL Computers wants to develop next year’s quarterly forecasts of salesrevenue for its brand laptops. The sales are seasonal and the company believes that thefollowing most recent eight quarters of sales should be representative of next year’ssales: Year Quarter Sales (millions of dollars) 1 1 9.2 1 2 5.4 1 3 4.3 1 4 14.1 2 1 10.3 2 2 6.4 2 3 5.4 2 4 16.0 Determine the forecast of next year’s quarterly sales revenue for this line of laptops.Show all your workings.
- Question 1 ) The monthiy sales Of yamizí Battery company are asfollows:- Month Jales 2000 2100 1500 1400 1300 Calcuiate fore cost sales for June using each of the fo llowing method: - i) Naive Method 1M 3 Month Simple moving averoger Ti) Exponentral smoothing using an a =0:3 cand may forecast of 1600 units.Q1) Forecasting is both art and science. Describe the situations where we use Qualitative forecasting techniques and quantitative forecasting techniquesGiven November actual demand of 61, November forecast of 58, and an alpha of 0.4, November trend value +1.03, Beta of 0.3 what would the forecast including trend (FIT) for the December period be using exponential smoothing model 2? Select one: a. 62.03 b. cannot be found c. 68.76 d. 65.72
- Question 03 Suppose you sell stylish leather bags targeting young office going people who can use your bags to carry laptops and necessary stuff. You have already launched leather bags in February of this year and now based on the demand results of last 7 months, you want to predict the demand for your bags for the month of September. Hence, you want to select the right forecasting techniques and you are considering 2 period Moving Average, Naive technique and Exponential Smoothing (use any value between .10 - .15 as the value of alpha). Now figure out the better forecasting technique among 2 period Moving Average, Naive technique and Exponential Smoothing by doing the error calculation with the help of MAD, MSE, MAPE. Period Demand 2period Moving Average (Demand forecast) Naive technique (Demand forecast) Exponential Smoothing (Demand forecast) February 70 75 ** ** March 74 78 ** ** April 80 ** ** ** May 88 ** ** ** June…There is a bias towards under forecasting, though we cannot determine from the data provided whether that is severe bias or not O There is a severe bias towards under forecasting O Bias is negligible in this case Question 22 A MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation) of 17.3 suggests which of the following? O There is an over-forecasting bias of 17.3 O The standard deviation for the forecast data is 17.3 O All forecasts fall within 17.3 of the actual data O On average, the forecasts miss by 17.3 O Without knowing the average, the MAD is useless 0 日Month Demand Sept. 78 Oct. 80 Nov. 77 Dec. 85 Jan. Based on the time series data presented above, do the forecasts using 2-month moving average (2-MA) and single exponential smoothing (SES) with a = 0.4, and answer the following questions: %3D (i) What is the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for 2-MA? (ii) What is the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for SES a = 0.4 ? (iii) Based on what you got, which method is more accurate?
- Q5) Monthly sales for a six month period are as follows: Month SalesJan 18,000Feb 22,000Mar 16,000Apr 18,000May 20,000June 24,000 Compute the sales forecast for July using the following approaches: (1) Four-month moving average; (2) Weighted three-month moving average using .50 for June, .30 for May and .20 for April;(3) Exponential smoothing with α (smoothing constant) equal to .40, assuming a February forecast of 18,000Question 3: Jane is trying to forecast demand for her store, using moving average with n=2, Fill in the missing cells with correct values and find average error for first quarter and second quarter of year 2000 E Enroll- Year Quarter ment Forecast Error Abs Error 1997 313 3. 2 285 4 3 312 5. 4 339 6. 1998 1 359 7 320 356 385 6. 10 1999 396 367 11 397 12 423 13 14 2000 1 15 2000 3412M4The table shows the values found in the error analysis. What method of forecasting would be best to use? What is the forecasted value? MSE forecast for week 13 Time Series 1.08 14.76 3-week MA 3.04 13.67 exp smoothing 11.04 9.5 Group of answer choices A.) Time Series, forecasted value = 14.76 B.) 3-week MA, forecasted value = 13.67 C.) exp smoothing, forecasted value = 9.5 D.) Time Series, forecasted value = 1.08 E.) 3-week MA, forecasted value = 3.04 F.) exp smoothing, forecasted value = 11.04