You are given the demand and forecast history for Apple iPhone 12. According to this, what is the 3-period weighted moving average forecast for Week 11 with weights 1,2,3? (Use the first weight for the oldest (the least relevant) demand value. Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your final answers to two decimal places. Hint: If weights do not add up to 1, they need to be normalized with the sum of the weights, which is 6 in this case. For example: weight 1 becomes -0.167(@orsdemir, Copyrighted content. Cannot be posted)
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- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?
- The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?14 Community General Hospital finds itself treating many bicycle accident victims. Data from the last seven 24-hour periods is shown below: Day Bicycle Victims 1 8 2 14 3 8 4 14 5 18 6 15 With an alpha value of 0.31 and a starting forecast in day 3 equal to the 21 , what is the exponentially smoothed forecast for day 4? (Round to two decimal places) 15 What is the exponentially smoothed forecast for day 5? (Round to two decimal places)12-1. The Hartley-Davis motorcycle dealer in the Minneapolis- St. Paul area wants to be able to forecast accurately the de- mand for the Roadhog Super motorcycle during the next month. From sales records, the dealer has accumulated the data in the following table for the past year. Month January February March April Мay June Motorcycle Sales 7 10 8 7 12 July August September 10 11 12 October 10 November December 14 16 a Compute a three-month moving average forecast of demand for April through January (of the next year). b. Compore a five-month moving average forecast for June drough January. c. Compare the two forecasts computed in parts (a) and (b) using MAD. Which one should the dealer use for January of dhe next year?
- The demand (in number of units) for Apple iPad over the past 6 months at BestBuy is summarized below. Month Nov 2019 Dec 2019 Demand 45 48 Jan 2020 50 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 42 46 51 Consider the following three forecasting methods: • Two-month weighted moving average, with weights 6 and 2 (more weight assigned to more recent data) Exponential smoothing with a = 0.7. Let the initial forecast for Nov 2019 be 46. • A trend line projection in the form ŷ = a+bx . To simplify computations, transform the value of x (time) to simpler numbers – designate Nov 2019 as x=1, Dec 2019 as x= 2, etc. (a ) For each of the above methods, forecast the demand of Apple iPad for May 2020. (b) Consider only the two-month weighted moving average method, compute the MAD measure and the MSE measure using the data from Jan 2020. (c) Use the trend line to forecast the demand of Apple iPad for Dec 2020. Give your opinion regarding the reliability of the forecast.Given the following historical data, what is the simple three-period moving average forecast for period 6? Period 1 2 3 4 5 67.67 68.2 67.3 68.4 Value 73 66 64 73 6611. Consider the following actual and forecast demand levels for Big Mac hamburgers at a local McDonald's restaurant: Day Actual Demand Forecast Demand Monday 88.00 88.00 Tuesday 72.00 88.00 Wednesday 68.00 84.00 Thursday 48.00 80.00 Friday − ? Part 2 The forecast for Monday was derived by observing Monday's demand level and setting Monday's forecast level equal to this demand level. Subsequent forecasts were derived by using exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.25. Using this exponential smoothing method, the forecast for Big Mac demand for Friday is __________ Big Macs (round your response to one decimal place).
- Additional Algo 15-12 Forecasting with Seasonality Demand history for the past three years is shown below, along with the seasonal indices for each quarter. Seasonal Index 1.25 Year Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Quarter 01 02 03 04 01 02 03 04 01 02 03 04 Year 4, 01 forecast Demand 926 819 585 515 912 874 651 552 861 828 571 542 1.176 0.837 0.745 1.25 1.176 0.837 0.745 1.25 1.176 0.837 0.745 Use exponential smoothing with alpha (a) - 0.3 and an initial forecast of 720 along with seasonality to calculate the Year 4, Q1 forecast. Note: Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answer to the nearest whole number.Forecast sales for the 11th period. For leveling, use exponential smoothing 0.20 and moving average 3 for averaging; and linear and exponential functions for trend data. Assume an initial exponential forecast of 620 units in period 2 if you decide to use it (i.e., no forecast for period 1). Period 1 2 4 5. 17 8. 6. 10 Sales 748 690 731 869 845 956 1200 1062 1090 1200What is meant by the term tracking the forecast? In which two ways can forecasts go wrong?