Create a time series plot. b) Develop a six period moving average. What is the forecast for month 30? c) Develop an exponential smoothing forecast with a smoothing constant of 0.65. What is the forecast for month 30?
Q: a) What is the value of your forecast? The value of the forecast is patients (round your response to…
A: Forecasting is a technique used to predict future outcomes on the basis of past data. In businesses…
Q: The following table shows the number of televisions sold over the last ten years at a local…
A: Remember formulas: X bar = ∑X / n Y bar = ∑ Y/ n b =( ∑ X*Y) - n× X bar × Y bar) / (∑X^2-n× (X…
Q: A cause -and-effect diagram is used to identify the possible causes of defects. Draw a Cause and…
A: Cause and effect diagram aka fishbone diagram aka Ishikawa diagrams are causal diagrams created by…
Q: Explain the key aspects of operation management decision making
A: According to the business definition, operations management is the design, execution, and control of…
Q: What is the linear trend forecast for September? Month Month Sales Feb 1 19 Mar 2 18 Apr…
A: Linear trend equation is the simplest form of regression analysis. It is used to predict the next…
Q: For a population, N = 14,000, μ = 110, and o 19. Find the z value for x = 128.60 for n = 36. Round…
A: Given data: µ = 110 σ = 19 X¯ = 128.60 n = 36 N = 14,000
Q: IN THE MID-1960S, WALT DISNEY’S DREAM was to build a family resort destination like no other. The…
A: Forecasting is a technique to predict future value. It is useful to predict future demand, sales, or…
Q: Explain Three (3) approaches that a buyer could take to obtain reliable information about suppliers’…
A: The functioning and financial health of company are critically impacted by the financial stability…
Q: Discuss the importance of following a well-integrated change control process on IT projects. What…
A: A formal approach is called "Change Control." It is configured to allow project teams to change the…
Q: Arnold Tofu owns and operates a chain of 12 vegetable protein “hamburger” restaurants in northern…
A: An estimate of the line that depicts the actual but unidentified linear connection between the two…
Q: Janson's Department Store in Stark, Ohio, maintains a successful catalog sales department in which…
A:
Q: What types of scheduling decisions are management likely to encounter in the following operations?…
A: The purpose of scheduling is to meet both efficiency and customer service objectives by ensuring…
Q: 7- A sourcing strategy for items in the bottleneck quadrant can be to a-adjust specifications to…
A: Ans) 7) A sourcing strategy for items in the bottleneck quadrant can be to 1) increasing…
Q: Explain how waiting lines can develop even when the service time is a constant.
A: The waiting line is the length of time that a customer has to wait before they are served. The…
Q: Find the least expensive route from I to L and state its cost 120 K 120 150 40 P 30 100 70 30/ N 50…
A: The shortest route method is an optimization technique of network models. Based on the input and…
Q: (1) Find an optimal assignment of trucks to routes to minimize the total cost (using the Hungarian…
A: The Assignment Problem is a problem in the field of Operations Management which is defined as…
Q: Maximum Flow
A: To find out the number of vehicles that can move from school to park can be calculated using the…
Q: Which term describes a product produced as part of a project? Work package Deliverable…
A: All outputs, physical or intangible that were already presented as part of something like a…
Q: Part 2 Calculation Questions As assistant manager of a soccer specialty store you have been asked to…
A: Given data: Average weekly demand (d) = 18 pairs/week Standard Deviation of demand = 6 pairs Lead…
Q: 4. AlwaysRain Irrigation, Inc. would like to determine capacity requirements for the next four…
A: Formulas to be used: % of capacity used=Total demand production capacity per 1000 units per…
Q: To meet holiday demand, Alex's Pie Shop requires a production line that is capable of producing 50…
A: Cycle time is the proportion between total available time and total demand. Considering the given…
Q: What upgrades could be made to your products or services to make it better? Explain your answer.
A: The process of making significant product changes that either attract new customers or enhance the…
Q: a) Draw a network diagram. b) List all the paths and their durations c) Find the critical path. d)…
A: Here, I have been given the activity table, for each activity, I have been given the immediate…
Q: Chiltern Farms “[T]he beautiful valley of Vyeboom nestled between the majestic Franschhoek Mountains…
A: Supply Chain Management relates to the distribution network that is laid out to move or dispatch…
Q: Zuke's Nukes is a retailer of organic microwavable entrees. They purchase frozen meals in batches…
A: The entire number of units produced during a production run is, in fact, referred to as the batch…
Q: In no less than 200 words, describe the connection between “quality” and “strategy.”
A: The term quality defines good or bad, success or failure, and right or wrong of the resultant…
Q: You are in the process of deciding the optimal order quantity of shampoo packs for a hotel. The…
A: Ans) First find EOQ and its cost:
Q: A project is scheduled to complete in six months duration. There are two activities in the project.…
A: Given data is
Q: A shoe store orders shoes from the manufacturer and sells them at a mall. Storing shoes at the store…
A: Given data: Let the number of pairs of shoes = X Holding cost = $8 per shoe pair Ordering cost =…
Q: task duration (hours) predecesor 1 predecesor 2 predecesor 3 A 4 B 5 C 3 A D 3 A…
A: Formulae used: Cycle Time = Operation time/dayoutput /day Theoretical minimum number of…
Q: GRAPH METHOD Graph-Based Method: Example Lets consider the following relationship chart and using…
A: Graph based method is construction type layout method which is used with an adjency based objective…
Q: Nighthawk Airlines measured their numbers of lost bags in one month and found that they had lost 50…
A: Six Sigma is a quality management strategy that was developed by Motorola in the mid-1980s. It was…
Q: Under the operations analysis, how do you know how to assign responsibilities?
A: Operational analysis refers to the inspection or checking of the current state of performance for…
Q: i. Using trend projection, develop a formula to predict sales for years 11 and 12. You have to show…
A: The linear trend equation is a formula used to calculate the slope and intercept of a linear trend y…
Q: What is the difference between process versus product layout? Where is each best?
A: Here, I would establish the difference between process layout and product layout with examples,…
Q: sign capacity and effective capacity. Provid On important? enter has the physical ability to handle…
A: A system's capacity is its ability to produce items or provide services within a certain time frame.…
Q: Dunstreet's Department Store would like to develop an inventory ordering policy with a 99 percent…
A: The quantity of inventory a company should always retain to run most successfully is the optimal…
Q: Based on the x-chart, is one or more samples beyond the control limits? Yes No
A: Control limits for x-bar chart: UCL = 4.86LCL = 4.52 Control limits for R chart: UCL = 1.344LCL =…
Q: a) Using a 2-year moving average, the forecast for year 6 = number). miles (round your response to…
A: Moving averages are a type of average that is computed by taking the average of a set of…
Q: If he uses the earliest due date first priority rule to schedule these jobs, what will be the…
A: Scheduling is the process of arranging production activities in order to complete the manufacturing…
Q: The wheat harvesting season in the American Midwest is short, and farmers deliver their truckloads…
A: From the given question description, the following information is extracted. Arrival rate λ = 31…
Q: A manufacturer can produce an item for $139/unit with a fixed cost of $56,034. The alternative is to…
A: The break-even point is the point at which the total cost of production equals the total revenue…
Q: What is the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast for September if we use alpha smoothing constant…
A: Simple exponential Smoothing is time series forecasting method. It is calculated with following…
Q: (d) Management realized that the optimal product mix, taking setup costs into account, might be…
A: The decision variables are already given. Objective function: Max…
Q: (a) Which constraints are binding? (b) Which constraints are non-binding? (c) What is the increase…
A: Linear programming is a mathematical technique that is also used in operations management…
Q: Based on the following BPMN diagram: List the main elements in the diagram. Illustrate the model…
A: BPMN or business process modeling and notation is a concept where certain processes or systems are…
Q: The Chattanooga Furniture store gets an average of 72 customers per shift. Marilyn Helms, the…
A: Arrival Rate = 72 customers per shift Cost of waiting = $1 min per customer Cost of salesperson per…
Q: Using the following, forecast the sales for the months up to January the following year:- A simple…
A: The mean absolute deviation (MAD) is a measure of the accuracy of forecasts. It measures how far off…
Q: e efficient anc e labor into pa first-class wo ommon purpo
A: The retailer of fast food services worldwide is McDonald's. Every day, the corporation serves more…
Q: What are the two primary questions a client will ask you when beginning a project? Why is it hard to…
A: The beginning or initiation of the project is the first step when the project gets started. During…
#3) Calls to a college emergency hotline for the past 29 months are as follows:
Month |
Calls |
Month |
Calls |
1 |
45 |
16 |
50 |
2 |
30 |
17 |
50 |
3 |
20 |
18 |
35 |
4 |
35 |
19 |
30 |
5 |
40 |
20 |
55 |
6 |
30 |
21 |
70 |
7 |
15 |
22 |
45 |
8 |
25 |
23 |
35 |
9 |
30 |
24 |
37 |
10 |
15 |
25 |
46 |
11 |
10 |
26 |
17 |
12 |
35 |
27 |
33 |
13 |
50 |
28 |
40 |
14 |
30 |
29 |
60 |
15 |
20 |
|
|
a) Create a time series plot.
b) Develop a six period moving average. What is the
c) Develop an exponential smoothing forecast with a smoothing constant of 0.65. What is the forecast for month 30?
d) Calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for each model in problems b, and c. Which model is the better predictor?
e) Actual calls during month 30 were 55. Which model is the better predictors? Explain.
f) Excel file
Step by step
Solved in 4 steps with 5 images
- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?The owner of a restaurant in Bloomington, Indiana, has recorded sales data for the past 19 years. He has also recorded data on potentially relevant variables. The data are listed in the file P13_17.xlsx. a. Estimate a simple regression equation involving annual sales (the dependent variable) and the size of the population residing within 10 miles of the restaurant (the explanatory variable). Interpret R-square for this regression. b. Add another explanatory variableannual advertising expendituresto the regression equation in part a. Estimate and interpret this expanded equation. How does the R-square value for this multiple regression equation compare to that of the simple regression equation estimated in part a? Explain any difference between the two R-square values. How can you use the adjusted R-squares for a comparison of the two equations? c. Add one more explanatory variable to the multiple regression equation estimated in part b. In particular, estimate and interpret the coefficients of a multiple regression equation that includes the previous years advertising expenditure. How does the inclusion of this third explanatory variable affect the R-square, compared to the corresponding values for the equation of part b? Explain any changes in this value. What does the adjusted R-square for the new equation tell you?The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.
- The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. Ethical decisions that affect a buyers ethical perspective usually involve the organizational environment, cultural environment, personal environment, and industry environment. Analyze this scenario using these four variables.Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What should Sharon do in this situation?
- Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What does the Institute of Supply Management code of ethics say about financial conflicts of interest?14 Community General Hospital finds itself treating many bicycle accident victims. Data from the last seven 24-hour periods is shown below: Day Bicycle Victims 1 8 2 14 3 8 4 14 5 18 6 15 With an alpha value of 0.31 and a starting forecast in day 3 equal to the 21 , what is the exponentially smoothed forecast for day 4? (Round to two decimal places) 15 What is the exponentially smoothed forecast for day 5? (Round to two decimal places) 164 Trinity General Hospital had the following number of patient admissions during the past 8 weeks Patient Week Admissions 1 120 145 3 95 4 112 5 130 6. 110 7 100 140 Develop a 3-weck weighted average forecast for Week 4 through 9 with weights a W1 = 0.2 W2 = 0.3 W3 = 0.5 Forecast patient admissions for week 9 using simple | exponential smoothing with a = 0.2. Assume that the forecast for Week 2 (F2) is the naïve forecast.
- 10 Community General Hospital finds itself treating many bicycle accident victims. Data from the last seven 24-hour periods is shown below: Day Bicycle Victims 1 8 2 14 3 8 4 14 5 18 6 15 What is the forecast for day 4 using a 3-period moving average model? (1 mark) (Round to two decimal places). 11 What is the forecast for day 5 using a 3-period moving average model? (Round to two decimal places). 12 What is the forecast for day 6 using a 3-period moving average model? (1 mark) (Round to two decimal places). 13a. What is the mean square error for time periods 2 through 4 using the average forecasting method? b. What is the mean absolute error for time periods 2 through 4 using the average forecasting method? c. What is the mean absolute percentage error for time period 2 through 4 using the average forecasting method? Round all answers to two decimal places. Time Period 1 2 3 4 Mean absolute error (MAE) Mean squared error (MSE) Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) Electric Bill 510 315 420 480 Average Forecast Forecast ErrorThree popular measures of forecast accuracy are:a) total error, average error, and mean error.b) average error, median error, and maximum error.c) median error, minimum error, and maximum absolute error.d) mean absolute deviation, mean squared error, and meanabsolute percent error.