12. Under the bottom-up approach, a central person or persons take the responsibility for forecasting and preparing an overall forecast. Select one: True False
Q: Explain the benefits does exponential smoothing have over moving avarages as a forecasting tool ?
A: While in Moving Averages the previous perceptions are weighted similarly, Exponential Smoothing…
Q: Explain the term “wrong” as it pertains to a good forecast?
A: In forecasting techniques, the word "wrong" refers to a difference between the real and forecasted…
Q: When to use of a time series forecasting technique, what assumptions are made?
A: The statistic techniques uses statistic on historical data and therefore the variables forecasted.…
Q: b) The forecast for the next month (Jan) using the naive method = sales (round your response to a…
A: Below is the solution:-
Q: What are the use of a time series forecasting and what assumption are made ?
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A: When choosing the forecasting technology, the important considerations cost and accuracy are…
Q: Give three example of unethical conduct involving forecasting and the ethical principle each…
A: Deceptive conduct is an activity that falls outside of what is considered ethically right or…
Q: Explain why it's important to keep track of forecasting errors.
A: For a time series or other phenomenon of interest, forecast error is the difference between the…
Q: 10. What is the approximate forecast for May using a four-month moving average? a.38 b.43 c.44 d. 47
A: Given data is
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A: Since we only answer up to 3 sub-parts, we’ll answer the first 3. Please resubmit the question and…
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A: A forecasting method is a managerial tool which help to predict the unknown future based on…
Q: It is a common saying that the only thing certain about a forecast is that it will be wrong. What is…
A: Forecasting is the process of predicting future demand values based on historical data. The…
Q: List specific weaknesses of consumer surveys, sales composite and committee manager to develop a…
A: Consumer survey is a way to gauge the customer satisfaction and demand. through conducting a survey.…
Q: When should time series forecasting techniques be used?
A: The statistical data and, as a consequence, the projected features are analyzed using statistical…
Q: b) What is this year's forecast using a three-year weighted moving average with weights of 0.5, 0.3,…
A: The concept of Operation Management: Operation management is the management that applies to a…
Q: Identify one method that is used in forecasting and explain how it is applied.
A: Forecasting: It is a process of predicting future demand based on past values or demand and present…
Q: Calculate the forecast for Week 16 using - a 2-period moving average - a 3-period moving average…
A: Given data is
Q: Explain what forecasting techniques makes use of written surveys or telephone interviews
A: Operations management manages the internal operation. It starts with the procurement and ends with…
Q: What are some of the consequences of poor forecasts? Explain.
A: The Consequences of the poor forecast are:
Q: Using exponential smoothing with a weight of 0.6 on actual values: (a) If sales are $45,000 and…
A: Serial No Years Actual sales(At) Forecast sales(Ft) F1 2017 45000 - F2 2018 50000 45000 F3…
Q: Explain what are some of the potential advantage of a more formalized approach to forecasting
A: Forecasting is a method of accurately anticipating future demand to plan for it. Manufacturing and…
Q: No singal forecast methodology is appropriate under all conditions: True or false?
A: Forecasting is a method that utilizes authentic information as contributions to make educated…
Q: Here are the errors associated with a particular forecast over the past five months, in…
A: Forecasting is a methodology that uses past information as input to make well-informed predictions…
Q: snip
A: The quantitative forecasting techniques require the past relevant data, the absence of this makes…
Q: Describe when to use of a time series forecasting techniques and what assumption are made?
A: Statistical approaches are used to forecast variables by analysing historical data. Forecasts are…
Q: Explain the nature of forecasting when it's periods are farthest into the future in forecasting ?
A: To be determined: the nature of forecasting when it's periods are farthest into the future in…
Q: Assume that you have three forecasting models. For the first, MAD = 2.5, for the second, the MSE…
A: Answer : OPTION D ( One cannot conclude )
Q: mon forecasting techniques.
A: It is possible to describe forecasting as a method of making predictions about the future based on…
Q: Explain the difference between qualitative and quantitative approaches to forecasting. Describe…
A: Forecasting is the method of forming foresight dependent on historical and existing or present…
Q: Gasoline sales Times Series week sales (1000s of gallons 1 17 2 21 3 19 4 23 5 18 6…
A: Find the Given details below: Given details: week sales (1000s of gallons) 1 17 2 21 3 19…
Q: 4. A major bank is considering installing ATMs at all locations of a grocery store chain. What…
A: Inventory management is a tool used to sourcing and distributing both raw materials and finished…
Q: What factors would you consider in deciding whether to use wide or narrow control limits for…
A: Control limits are the boundaries defined in a control chart within which all the random errors that…
Q: Write from your understanding the meaning of forecasting, forecasting time horizons, Seven Steps in…
A: Forecasting is a procedure that utilizations verifiable information as contributions to make…
Q: Forecasting can be classified into which basic types?
A: Forecasting is the process of identifying the demand accurately for future production planning and…
Q: Why the following Approaches are used in forecasting, how would you interpret them what do they mean…
A: Forecasting is a technique that a marketer uses to estimate various things like a trend, future…
Q: Use a three-period moving average method to determine forecast value for time 5 to 7. Use an…
A: THE ANSWER IS AS BELOW:
Q: Forecast sales for the 11th period. For leveling, use exponential smoothing 0.20 and moving average…
A: Use exponential formula = α×Actual demand+(1-α)×previous demand
Q: Interpret the MAD of the most accurate among the forecasting models below. A. Naïve approach; B.…
A: Find the Given details below: Given Details: Month Demand (100 Liters) 1 39 2 47 3 39 4…
Q: In the text, the example of Walmart's collaboration with Sara Lee during hurricane season enables…
A: Demand forecasting is the method involved with utilizing prescient investigation of verifiable…
Q: Give a proper explanation of what is meant by the adaptive forecasting
A: To be determined: a proper explanation of what is meant by the adaptive forecasting
Q: b) The forecast for the next month (Jan) using the naive method= 22 sales (round your response to a…
A: Forecasting is the process of predicting future events or trends based on past and present data.…
12. Under the bottom-up approach, a central person or persons take the responsibility for forecasting and preparing an overall forecast. Select one: True False
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- Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What should Sharon do in this situation?Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. Ethical decisions that affect a buyers ethical perspective usually involve the organizational environment, cultural environment, personal environment, and industry environment. Analyze this scenario using these four variables.Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What does the Institute of Supply Management code of ethics say about financial conflicts of interest?
- Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. Is Ben Gibson acting legally? Is he acting ethically? Why or why not?Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.
- The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?The owner of a restaurant in Bloomington, Indiana, has recorded sales data for the past 19 years. He has also recorded data on potentially relevant variables. The data are listed in the file P13_17.xlsx. a. Estimate a simple regression equation involving annual sales (the dependent variable) and the size of the population residing within 10 miles of the restaurant (the explanatory variable). Interpret R-square for this regression. b. Add another explanatory variableannual advertising expendituresto the regression equation in part a. Estimate and interpret this expanded equation. How does the R-square value for this multiple regression equation compare to that of the simple regression equation estimated in part a? Explain any difference between the two R-square values. How can you use the adjusted R-squares for a comparison of the two equations? c. Add one more explanatory variable to the multiple regression equation estimated in part b. In particular, estimate and interpret the coefficients of a multiple regression equation that includes the previous years advertising expenditure. How does the inclusion of this third explanatory variable affect the R-square, compared to the corresponding values for the equation of part b? Explain any changes in this value. What does the adjusted R-square for the new equation tell you?Sales of Volkswagen's popular Beetle have grown steadily at auto dealerships in Nevada during the past 5 years (see table below). Year Sales 1 450 2 502 3 520 4 570 5 575 a) Forecasted sales for year 6 using the trend projection (linear regression) method aresales (round your response to one decimal place). b) The MAD for a linear regression forecast is nothing sales (round your response to one decimal place).
- Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 12 15 11 18 13 Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy. (a) Mean absolute error If required, round your answer to one decimal place. (b) Mean squared error If required, round your answer to one decimal place. (c) Mean absolute percentage error If required, round your intermediate calculations and final answer to two decimal places. (d) What is the forecast for week 7?Using the photo attached, answer the following: 1. Using a numerical example, demonstrate to Mr. John how he can use the manual trend projection method of forecasting to forecast demand for the next two years.The manager of a travel agency asked you to come up with a forecasting technique that will best fit to the actual demand for packaged tours. You have observed and recorded the actual demand for the last 10 periods. You also identified two possible techniques for consideration: 2-month moving averages (F1), and exponential smoothing (F2) with a smoothing constant of 0.25. Using Cumulative Forecasting Error (CFE) and Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) as your performance measures you will determine the technique that will best fit to the actual demand data provided in the following table.STEP 1: Given start forecast values in period 3, compute forecast values from period 4 to 10. You are asked to provide the forecast values for period 6 and 10 for both techniques. 2-Month MA Exponential Period Demand F1 F2 1 115 -- -- 2 176 -- -- 3 97 146 129 4 141 5 98 6 132 7 114 8 129 9 107…