Provide a circumstance under which the expected monetary value is appropriate for decision making.
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Provide a circumstance under which the expected monetary value is appropriate for decision making.
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- Discuss how scenario planning can be used to assist in decision-making under conditions of uncertainty and carry out a scenario planning exercise from the point of view of Caroria Local Authority.Determine the course of action that has the highest expected payoff for this decision treeThis is the same payoff table used in questions 2 and 3. Below is a payoff table that lists four mortgage options: Decision 1-year ARM 3-year ARM 5-year Arm 30-year fixed Rates Rise $66,645 $62,857 $55,895 $52,276 Outcomes Rates Stable $43,650 $47,698 $50,894 $52,276 4) Which of the following decisions has the best average payoff? CA. 3-year ARM B. 1-year ARM CC. 5-year ARM CD. 30-year Fixed Rates Fall $38,560 $42,726 $48,134 $52,276
- A builder has located a piece of property that she would like to buy and eventually build on. The land is currently zoned for four homes per acre, but she is planning to request new zoning. What she builds depends on the approval of zoning requests and your analysis of this problem to advise her. With her input and your help, the decision process has been reduced to the following costs, alternatives, and probabilities:Cost of land: $2 millionProbability of rezoning: .60If the land is rezoned, there will be additional costs for new roads, lighting, and so on, of $1 million. If the land is rezoned, the contractor must decide whether to build a shopping center or 1,500 apartments that the tentative plan shows would be possible. If she builds a shopping center, there is a 70 percent chance that she can sell the shopping center to a large department store chain for $4 million over her construction cost, which excludes the land; and there is a 30 percent chance that she can sell it to an…State the differences between decision making under certainty, under risk, and under uncertainty.What is the best of the worst decision alternative? DİHL Co. is a Danao-based logistics company owned by Engr. Donald H. Lalican. Anticipating the growing demand for delivery services, he developed a strategic plan for the year 2022. The options are to hire additional delivery crews in their Mandaue facility, construct a new facility in Talisay City, or subcontract Ohlala Move, a small-time company. A study conducted by the marketing department forecasted the following payoff values, which are summarized in the table below. The values are expressed as gains and alpha = 0.6. States of Nature Decision Alternatives Failure Low Moderate High Hire additional Drivers in Mandaue -450,000 -250,000 250,000 500,000 Construct a facility in Talisay -800,000 -400,000 300,000 700,000 Subcontracting Ohlala Move -100,000 -10,000 150,000 300,000 Hire Additional Drivers in Mandaue Construct a Facility in Talisay O Subcontracting Ohlala Move Both Construct a Facility in Talisay and Subcontracting Ohlala…
- A payoff table is given as: S1 S2 S3 D1 250 750 500 D2 300 -250 1200 D3 500 500 600 (a) What choice should be made by the optimistic decision maker? (b) What choice should be made by the conservative decision maker? (c) What decision should be made under minimal regret? (d) If the probabilities of d1, d2, and d3 are .2, .5, and .3, respectively, then what choice should be made under expected value?Distinguish between the Expected Monetary Value (EMV) criterion and theExpected Utility Value criterion to decision makingDefine the goal of decision analysis and how different decision makers may approach risk in their terms of assessment utility.
- Identify and explain the 5-step decision making process and give an example of a situation where this process can be useda. What choice should be made by the optimistic decision maker?b. What choice should be made by the conservative decision maker?c. What decision should be made under minimal regret?Adam has been offered to open up a Service station. However, the size of the establishment will be based on his decision. The annual return and investment required will be based on both size and market condition. To help out in the decision making, Adam has done the analysis and the expected profit/loss are shown in the table: Develop a decision table for this? What is the maximax decision? What is the equally likely decision? Develop a decision tree. Assume each outcome is equally likely, then find the highest expected monetory value (EMV).