Use exponential smoothing with smoothing constant 0.4 to complete the table. b) Forecast the next Aetna stock closing value and find the boundaries for values within 1 MAE of the forecast. t Yt Ft et 1 4.09 2 6.07 3 5.40 4 7.48 5 8.31
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Daily time series data are collected for
Aetna stock closing values (referenced
to 100).
a) Use exponential smoothing with
smoothing constant 0.4 to complete
the table.
b)
value and find the boundaries for
values within 1 MAE of the forecast.
t Yt Ft et
1 4.09
2 6.07
3 5.40
4 7.48
5 8.31
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- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?3. The following tabulations are actual sales of units for 6 months and a starting forecast in January. a. Calculate forecasts for the remaining 5 months using simple exponential smoothing with a = 0.2. b. Calculate MAD for the forecasts. January February March April May June Actual 100 94 106 80 68 94 Forecast 80formula refers Naive Forecast method. O a. Forecast value for the current period = Last period actual value O b. Last period forecast demand value = Actual value for the current period O c. Ratio of Actual value / Forecast value O d. Sum of all data / number of data
- constants of .6 and .9, develop fo recasts for the sales of VWBeetles. What effect did the smoothing constant have on the forecast?Use MAD to deternline which of the three smoothing constants (.3,.6, or .9) gives the most accurate forecast. ~ (MyLab OperationsManagement also includes a shorter (brief) version of this problem.)Week Sales1 27502 31003 32504 28005 29006 30507 33008 31009 295010 300011 320012 3150Develop a three-week moving average. A.What is the forecast for week 5? (Make sure no decimal place and no comma. EX: 1234) B.What is the value of MSE (mean squared error) with regard to a three-week moving average? (Make sure no decimal place and no comma. EX: 1234) C.Develop the exponential smoothing with the alpha value of 0.20. What is the forecast for week 5? (Make sure no decimal place and no comma. EX: 1234) D.What is the value of MSE (mean squared error) with regard to the exponential smoothing? (Make sure no decimal place and no comma. EX: 1234) E.Which method is more accurate? (1 for Moving average, 2 for Exponential Smoothing)Accuracy of forecasts. The manager of a large manufacturer of industrial pumps must choose betweentwo alternative forecasting techniques. Both techniques have been used to prepare forecasts for a sixmonth period. Using MAD as a criterion, which technique has the better performance record?FORECASTMonth Demand Technique 1 Technique 21 492 488 4952 470 484 4823 485 480 4784 493 490 4885 498 497 4926 492 493 493
- Question 1 ) The monthiy sales Of yamizí Battery company are asfollows:- Month Jales 2000 2100 1500 1400 1300 Calcuiate fore cost sales for June using each of the fo llowing method: - i) Naive Method 1M 3 Month Simple moving averoger Ti) Exponentral smoothing using an a =0:3 cand may forecast of 1600 units.1. Demand forecast of products by market (demand forecast could be for four seasons/periods) 2. Facility opening costs by region and transportation costs between each pair of sites. 3. Inventory costs by site and as a function of quantity 4. Sales price of product in different regions excel sheet examplesGiven November actual demand of 61, November forecast of 58, and an alpha of 0.4, November trend value +1.03, Beta of 0.3 what would the forecast including trend (FIT) for the December period be using exponential smoothing model 2? Select one: a. 62.03 b. cannot be found c. 68.76 d. 65.72
- D.) compute MAPE for each data set. Which forecast appears to be more accurate?Bradley's Copiers sells and repairs photocopy machines. The manager needs weekly forecasts of service calls so that he can schedule service personnel. Use the actual demand in the first period for the forecast for the first week so error measurement begins in the second week. The manager uses exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.5 Forecast the number of calls for week 6, which is next week. Week Actual service calls 1 28 2 36 3 38 4 25 5 25 The forecast for week 6 is ___ service calls (round to two decimals and show your work)q1(a)Imagine that you need to introduce a new gadget such as the Apple Watch. Determine which forecasting method is appropriate for projecting the future demand of such this gadget. b)ARIMA is mostly used to forecast future values using historical time series data, as we all know. Its primary use is in short-term forecasting with at least 38-40 historical data points and a small number of outliers. If we don't have at least 38 data points, we should consider using another strategy.
