Week Actual 1 28.9 2 24.3 3 37.7 47.5 48.3 68.0 72.4 78.6 85.7 97.3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 A store's demand figures are given in the table. According to this, what is the linear regression forecast for Week 12. (You need to use Excel to solve this problem. Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your final answers to two decimal places. Corsdemir, Copyrighted content. Cannot be posted.)
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- The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.
- b. Kim’s department at a local department store has tracked the sales of a product over thelast nine weeks. The demand can be seen in the table below.Period Demand1 242 233 264 365 266 307 328 269 25i. Forecast demand using exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.3, and an initialforecast of 30.0 for period 2 to 9.ii. Use a 5-period moving average, forecast the demand up to period 9.iii. Using MAD, determine which forecasting technique is better.Given the following history, use a three-quarter moving average to forecast the demandfor the third quarter of this year. Note that the 1st quarter is Jan, Feb, and Mar; 2ndquarter Apr, May, Jun; 3rd quarter Jul, Aug, Sep; and 4th quarter Oct, Nov, JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DECLast year 120 140 145 195 205 220 165 155 145 220 245 265This year 140 145 200 210 240 2552. Fastway is a parcel delivery company based in Pretoria. It measures demand on a weekly basis in terms of the number of parcels which it is given to deliver (irrespective of the size of each parcel). The forecast for week 20 is 63. The table below shows actual demands for Fastway. Week Actual demand 20 63 21 62 22 67 23 66 24 67 25 69 26 65 27 71 28 68 29 68 30 70 31 72 32 66 33 68 34 67 Predict the forecast for week 35 using an exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.20.
- The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years: Year 1 Demand 8 2 9 3 5 This exercise contains only parts b, c, and d. b) Using the 3-year moving average, provide the forecast from periods 4 through 12 (round your responses to one decimal place). Year Forecast 4 5 4 10 6 5 13 7 6 7 8 7 11 9 8 14 10 9 8 11 10 13 12 11 8Problem 18-28 (Algo) The following are historical demand data: YEAR SEASON 2011 Spring Summer Fall 2012 Winter Spring Summer Fall Winter ACTUAL DEMAND 210 136 375 582 465 274 695 972 Use regression analysis on deseasonalized demand to forecast demand in summer 2013. (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answer to the nearest whole number.) Forecast for summer 2013a. What is your forecast for December of Year 4, making period 1 as the starting period for the regression? b. The actual demand for period 48 was just learned to be 5,100. Add this demand to the Inputs file and change the starting period for the regression to period 2 so that the number of periods in the regression remains unchanged. How much or little does the forecast for period 49 change from the one for period 48? The error measures? Are you surprised?c. Now change the time when the regression starts to period 25 and repeat the process. What differences do you note now? What forecast will you make for period 49?
- National Standard, Inc. sells radio frequency identification (RFID) tags. Monthly demand for a seven-month period is reported below: Sales (1000 units) Forecast Observation Month Yt Ft 1 February 19 2 March 18 3 April 15 4 May 20 5 June 18 6 July 22 7 August 20 8 September ? Use Excel to plot the data and forecast September sales using the following methods: The naïve forecast A three-month moving average Exponential smoothing with a smoothing coefficient of α = 0.2, assuming a February forecast of 19 A 3-month weighted moving average, with weights 0.60, 0.3, and 0.1. With 0.6 applied to the most recent past.Given the following demand data, compute a simple exponential smoothing forecast for alpha values of O.3 and 0.5. Use the actual value in Period 1 as your starting forecast in Period 2 (Round all your calculotions to two decimal points.) Period Actual Demend 32 30 29 32 33 33 35 32 6. 32 10 11 30 30 a03 a05 Period Forecast Forecast 3 6 7. 10 11 12Given the following data, use exponential smoothing (α = 0.10) to develop a demand forecast. Assume the forecast for the initial period is 9. Period Demand 1 2 10 13 1 9.00 3 7 The exponential smoothing forecast is (round your responses to two decimal places): Period 2 Forecast 9.10 3 9.40 4 6 4 8.80 5 8.70 5 10 6 9.10 6 4 7 8.50
