What is the likelihood that the project described in the following table will be completed within 44 days? Activity Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic Мean Variance Predecessor A 8 11 None В 8 10 A 13 16 A 4 8 В, С E 12 15 F 10 15 20 You need to calculate Mean and Variance.
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- Create a risk matrix for this project:Event Cost ($000) ProbabilityEquipment breakdown 40 .20Vendor is late with key segment 200 .60Subcontractor has labor issues 140 .30Weather problems 15 UnknownFunding delays 50 .40 to .60Testing delays 20 .40Explain your reasoning for your placement of the events Weather problems and Funding delays.c. What is the expected project completion time? (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answer to 2 decimal places.) Project completion time d. What is the probability of completing this project within 16 days? (Use Excel's NORMSDIST() function to find the correct probability for your computed Z-value. Do not round intermediate calculations. Round "2" value to 2 decimal places and final answer to 4 decimal places.) Probability 10 00 days 09994How Can You Get to a Backlog of over 100 Projects? There are never enough resources to get everything done." Backlogs build over time. Sacred cow projects get included in the selection system. Projects proposed from people who have left the airline stil reside in the project portfolio. Non-value-added projects somehow make their way into the project portfolio. Soon the queue gets longer. With everyone in IT working on too many projects concurrently, project completion and productivity are slow. Which Projects Remain? To cut the number of projects, the steering committee used a weighting scheme that reflected the airline's priorities, which were: fly safe, generate revenue, reduce costs, and customer service. The weighting scheme easily weeded out the fluff. Coady noted that "by the time you get to the 20s the margin of differentiation gets narrower and narrower." Of the remaining projects, project sponsors had to have solid justification why their project is important. Reduction of the…
- Topic: ProbabilityGoal: In your business planning, you will employ mathematics probability to increase your chances of success.You play the role of a tiny business owner who wants to expand into a much larger enterprise. You must write a written report and deliver it to the group on the most likely outcome(s) of the business you wish to start.The target audience is a group of small company owners who could be interested in partnering with you. Product: A written report on the business's likely results that will be given to the group. Success Criteria: The written report that will be provided must be... - Represents genuine business problems or patterns. - Persuasive, based on probability mathematics.The following precedence diagram reflects three time estimates for each activity. Determine: Use Table B1 and Table B2. 9-10-12 3 8 5-7-10 8-10-14 11-12-13 6 11 14-18-26 10.5-13-15.5 10 8-8-8 1 5-6-7 2 4 13-13-13 7 7-10-12 a. The expected completion time for each path and its variance. (Round intermediate calculations to 4 decimal places and final answers to 2 decimal places.) Path Mean Var. Std. Dev. 1-2-3-8-11 37.33 1-2-4-6-11 43.00 5.11 1-2-4-7-11 0.81 1-2-5-9-10-11 46.83 1.25 9-9-9 10-11-12 10-12-14c. From the following decision tree, develop a payoff table and calculate: * Maximax, Minimax regret, Maximin, and EMV. ORs. 50,000 Good conditions (0.60) Poor conditions (0.40) -O Rs. 30,000 Apartment Building Good conditions (0.60) O Rs. 100,000 Office building Poor conditions (0.40) Purchase ORs -40,000 Warchouse Good conditions (0.60) Rs.30, 000 Poor conditions (0.40) O Rs. 10,000
- Quarterly sales of PnP (in hundred million Rands) from 2000 to 2004 are given in the table below: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2000 5 6 8 9 2001 6 8 9 11 2002 10 9 12 10 2003 13 10 15 10 2004 14 16 15 14 What is the five period moving average for 2002_Q2 (round off to one decimals). A. 10.8 B. 10.4 C. 10.2 D. 10.0MNGT 21 – Management Science Decision Tree 1. A manager has to decide whether to prepare a bid or not. It costs P5,000 to prepare the bid. If the bid is submitted, the probability that the contract will be awarded is 50%. If the company is awarded the contract, it may earn an income of P100,000 if it succeeds, or pay a fine of P8,000 if it fails. The probability of success is estimated to be 80%. Should the manager prepare a bid? Mr. del Mundo, the president of RFC Corporation is faced with deciding whether to purchase a patent to develop a new product or not. If the company purchases the patent, it should develop the product. The selling price of the patent if P50,000. There are two ways of developing the product: the Modern Method and the Traditional Method. It costs P20,000 to use the Modern Method, and P15,000 for the traditional Method. The proby, of success in the Modern Method is 60%, while it is 70% for the Traditional Method. If the product is successfully developed, it will…Consider the following payoff (cost) table with probabilities for each state of nature (s) Decisions D1 D2 0.1 s1 3 state of nature 1-0.1 s2 17 20 The expected value for the best (optimal) decision is
- You are the project manager for a railroad construction project. Your sponsor has asked you for a forecast for the cost of project completion. The project has a total budget of $80,000 and CPI of .95. The project has spent $25,000 of its budget so far. How much more money do you plan to spend on the project? A. $80000 B. $84,210 C. $59,210 D. $109,21011. Bakery Products is considering the introduction of a new line of pastries. In order to produce the new line, the bakery is considering either a major or a minor renovation of its current plant. Bill Wicker, head of operations, has developed the following conditional values table: Alternatives Favorable Market Unfavorable Market Major renovation $100,000 -$90,000Minor renovation $40,000 -$20,000 Do nothing $0 $0 Assume that the probability of a favorable market is equal to the probability of an unfavorable market.Part 2a) Choose the appropriate decision tree showing payoffs and probabilities.A.MinorFavorable40,000Unfavorable-20,000UnfavorableFavorableMajor100,000-90,000Do…1. A clothing store is opening a second location and wants to decide whether to open in San Francisco or New York. Opening a location in either city will involve different capital expenditures and demonstrate different rates of success. Below are the relevant data: DECISION PROBABILITY OF PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS FAILURE San Francisco 40% 60% New York 30% 70% PAYOFF (SUCCESS) 15,000,000 30,000,000 PAYOFF (FAILURE) 4,000,000 10,000,000 DECISION San Francisco New York The costs associated with opening each location are as follows: in San Francisco, the store will need to invest $2 million, while a New York location will require an investment of $5 million. The expected payoff amounts represent the potential revenue if the store succeeds, or the potential loss if the store fails. REQUIRED: a. Draw the decision tree for the above problem; b. Compute for the Expected Value for each decision; c. Compute for the net gain / loss of each decision