What should be the analyst’s decision? b. How much gain or loss will he expect for the company? c. Should he buy the perfect information? Why or why not? d. What will he do to minimize opportunity cost?
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14. Stephanie, the supply chain analyst of Nestle is asked to present an expansion plan for the
company. The plan is either to construct a plant, open a distribution center, or do nothing. From
the plant construction, the company will gain 80,000Php if the market turns favorable, loss of
10,000 if average, and loss of 50,000 if unfavorable. From opening a distribution center, the
company will gain 40,000Php if favorable, gain 20,000Php if average, and loss of 30,000Php if
unfavorable. And if the decision is do nothing, the company will gain nothing regardless of the
market turnout. Then, he was able to determine further the probability of occurrence of each
type of market. The probability of occurrence is 60%, 25%, and 40%, respectively. He also found
out that he can buy the information on what will really happen to the market for 2,000Php.
a. What should be the analyst’s decision?
b. How much gain or loss will he expect for the company?
c. Should he buy the perfect information? Why or why not?
d. What will he do to minimize opportunity cost?
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- CVP Analysis Lawn Master Company, a manufacturer of riding lawn mowers, has a projectedincome for the coming year as follows:Sales $46,000,000Operating expenses:Variable expenses $32,200,000Fixed expenses 7,500,000Total expenses 39,700,000Operating profit $ 6,300,000Required1. Determine the breakeven point in sales dollars.2. Determine the required sales in dollars to earn a before-tax profit of $8,000,000.3. What is the breakeven point in sales dollars if the variable expenses increases by 12%?19. What combination of x and y will yield the optimum for this problem? Maximize $3x + $15y, subject to (1) 2x + 3y ≤ 12 and (2) 5x + 2y ≤ 10 and (3) x, y ≥ 0. Part 2 A. x = 0, y = 3 B. x = 2, y = 0 C. x = 0, y = 0 D. x = 0, y = 4 E. x = 1, y = 5Kraft Bakeries introduced in 2019 a new line of frozen apple pie. For 2019, sales by quarter were asfollows: 11,000 units, 16,000 units, 15,000 units, and 20,000 units. Because of aggressive marketing and promotion, the company expects that sales for each quarter of 2020 will be 25% higher thanthe respective quarter in 2019. The selling price per unit in 2020 is expected to be $4. What are theexpected sales, in units and dollars, for the second quarter of 2020? For the third quarter of 2020?
- McGwire Aerospace expects to have net cash flow of $12 million. The company forecasts that its operating costs excluding depreciation and amortization will equal 75 percent of the company’s sales. Depreciation and amortization expenses are expected to be $5 million and the company has no interest expense. All of McGwire’s sales will be collected in cash, costs other than depreciation and amortization will be paid in cash during the year, and the company’s tax rate is 40 percent. What is the company’s expected sales?In theory, scenario analysis is a process of analyzing future events by considering alternative possible outcomes. Thus, scenario analysis, which is one of the main forms of projection, does not try to show one exact picture of the future. Instead, it presents several alternative future developments. Likewise, the Looking to the Future insert in Chapter 2, namely Scenarios on The Evolvement of National Cultures holds forth that managers must envision different scenarios on dimensions and dynamics of national cultures. Doing so prepares, does the reasoning, helps international managers improve the knowledge, skills, abilities needed to deal with ongoing cultural changes that influence the context of national markets, As noted in the Scenarios on The Evolvement of National Cultures, we focus our attention on four possibilities. Scenario 1: New Hybrid Cultures Will Develop and Personal Horizons Will Broaden Scenario 2: Although the Outward Expressions of National Culture Will…4. Transrail is bidding on a project that it figures will cost $400,000 to perform. Using a 25% markup, it will charge $500,000, netting a profit of $100,000. However, it has been learned that another company, Rail Freight, is also considering bidding on the project. If Rail Freight does submit a bid, it figures to be a bid about $470,000. Transrail really wants this project and is considering a bid with only a 15% markup to $460,000 to ensure winning regardless of whether or not Rail Freight submits a bid. a. Prepare a profit payoff table from Transrail’s point of view. (6 points) b. For this payoff table find Transrail’s optimal decision using (1) the pessimistic approach, (2) the optimistic approach, and (3) minimax regret approach. (10 points) c. If Rail Freight is known to submit bids on only 25% of the projects it considers, what decision should Transrail make? (5 points) d. Given the information in (c), what is EVPI? (5 points)
- Company X is planning to run a project that requires an initial investment of RM 80,000.Operation cost is estimated at RM 20,000 per year starting one year from the start of theproject until its project life. Starting second year onwards, the operation cost is expectedto increase by RM 5,000 from previous year. The project will start to generate its annualincome of RM 70,000 on the second year until fifth year. The salvage value of the projectis RM 50,000 and its project life is five years. a) Construct the cash flow diagram to summarize the above transactions. b) Determine the expected project value at the end of five years. Assume the growth rateis 12%.Server Farm Inc. (SFI) needs to upgrade its servercomputers. Company management has identified thefollowing two options: (1) shift to a Windows‐basedplatform from its current Unix‐based platform, or(2) stick with a Unix‐based platform. It is standardpractice at SFI to use a triangular distribution to modeluncertain costs.Along these lines, the company estimates that if itmigrates to Windows, the new server hardware couldcost as little as $100,000 or as much as $200,000. Thetechnical group’s best estimate is that the hardwareMantel_c04.indd 138 9/6/2016 4:52:35 PMcosts will be $125,000 if the Window’s option is pursued. Likewise, the company’s best guess regarding thecost to upgrade and convert its software to Windows is$300,000 with a range of $275,000 to $500,000.Finally, if the company converts to Windows, employeetraining costs are estimated to range between $9,000and $15,000, with the best guess being $10,000. If thecompany sticks with Unix, the new server hardwarewill most likely…A payoff matrix has to be prepared with three alternative products Α1 , Α2 and Α3 . The respective cost costs of these products are K2, K2.50 and K4 per unit and their sale prices are K3, K4 and K5 per unit respectively. The normal production capacity of the plant for production of each of the products Α1 , Α2 and Α3 is 3,000, 2,000 and 1,000 units respectively. i. Showing all the working clearly, prepare the payoff table if the states of demand are high (S1 ) , moderate (S2 ) and low (S3 ) with respective demand levels of 3,000, 2,000 and 1, 000 units. The stocks unsold will be worth half the cost price for the next period. ii. What is the maximax decision? iii. What is the maximin decision? iv. What is equally likely decision? v. What is the criterion of realism decision? Use α = 0.8 vi. Develop an opportunity loss table and determine the minimax decision.
- Suppose you have a choice of three projects to choose from. Here the expected profits from these projects under the following economic scenarios: Project Poor/Fair Moderate/Stable Strong/Booming A -200 $400 $700 B -700 600 1200 C 100 500 900 Now suppose the probability of a Poor/Fair economy is 25%, a Moderate/Stableeconomy is 45% and there is a 30% chance for a Strong/Booming economy.A) Setup a decision tree.B) Determine the expected value (EV) for each project. What project shouldbe selected based on the expected value approach? Why?C) Determine the expected value with perfect information about the states ofnature?D) Determine the expected value without perfect information about the states ofnature?E) Determine the expected value of perfect information.A franchise operation that sells frozen custardintends to open one or more new stores in amedium-sized metropolitan area. Three sitesare under consideration. Each site hassomewhat different projected profitcontribution and different supervisionrequirements. The first site has an estimateddaily profit of $200 and a weekly supervisionrequirement of 48 hours; the second site has aprojected profit of $100 per day and a weeklysupervision requirement of 30 hours; and thethird site has an estimated daily profit of $150and a weekly supervision requirement of 20hours. The firm will have 65 hours available forper week for supervision.Use Excel to determine which site or sitesshould be selected in order to obtain thehighest projected daily profit?#6) A group of medical professionals is considering constructing a private clinic. If a patient demand for the clinic is high, the physicians could realize a net profit of $120,000. If the demand is low, they could lose $55,000. Of course, they do not have to proceed at all, in which case there is no cost. In the absence of any market data, the best the physicians can guess is that there is a 50-50 chance the demand would be high. a) Create a decision tree. b) What should the medical professionals do? What is the payoff? c) The physicians have been approached by a market research firm that offers to perform a study of the market at a fee of $5,000. The market researchers claim that their experience enables them to use Bayes’ theorem to make the following statements of probability: -probability of high demand given a positive survey result = 0.82 -probability of low demand given a positive survey result = 0.18 -probability of high demand given a negative survey result = 0.11…