Statistics for Business and Economics
Statistics for Business and Economics
8th Edition
ISBN: 9780132745659
Author: Paul Newbold, William Carlson, Betty Thorne
Publisher: PEARSON
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Chapter 2.1, Problem 3E

(a)

To determine

Compute the sample mean.

(b)

To determine

The sample median.

(c)

To determine

The mode number of the given data.

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A researcher has a sample of 6 annual observations {94, 104, 102, 99, 111 and 107} for the CPI in country Z for the period 2015 to 2020, and wants to forecast CPI for the years 2021, 2022 and 2023. The researcher uses 3 different forecasting models: A, B and C. Model A is an AR(1) model with no drift and with an estimated autoregressive coefficient = 0.7. Model B is a MA(1) model with no constant and with an estimated MA coefficient = -0.4 (note the minus !). Model C is a random walk model with no drift. The error terms over the 2015-2020 period were estimated to have the values: {3, -1, 2, 4, -3, 1}.  a. Compute the 2021, 2022 and 2023 forecasted values for the consumer price index based on the three models. Show the formulas and the details of your calculations, and explain all the related symbols.  b. Suppose that the actual values of the CPI over the 2021, 2022 and 2023 were {108, 114, 105}. Calculate the Root mean square error of the three model forecasts over the 2021-2023…
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