Production and Operations Analysis, Seventh Edition
7th Edition
ISBN: 9781478623069
Author: Steven Nahmias, Tava Lennon Olsen
Publisher: Waveland Press, Inc.
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Chapter 2.9, Problem 36P
Summary Introduction
To calculate: MAD and MSE of actual given data and
Mean absolute deviation
MAD is calculated by the division of sum of absolute deviations and number of observations. Here, absolute deviations are calculated by deducting the forecasted data from the actual data.
Mean squared error
MSE is calculated by the division of sum of square of deviations and number of observations. Here, deviations are calculated by deducting estimated data from the actual data.
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period demand period demand
120
1
13
131
2
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14
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3
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4
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16
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18
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A pharmacist has been monitoring sales of a certain over-the-counter pain reliever. Daily sales during the last 15 days were
a. Assume the data refer to demand rather than sales. Using trend-adjusted exponential smoothing with an initial forecast of 46 for Day 8, an initial trend estimate of 2, and α = β = .3, develop demand forecasts for Days 9 through 16. Then compute the resultant MSE using the error values from Days 8 through 15. (Round your intermediate period-by-period forecast and error values to 3 decimal places. Round your final MSE answer to 3 decimal places.)
MSE =
Day:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Number sold:
31
32
35
38
38
42
42
43
41
44
46
46
49
55
52
Using the data set below, what would be the forecast for period 5 using the exponential smoothing method? Assume the forecast for period 4 is 14000. Use a smoothing constant of a = 0.4 (Choose the closest answer.)
Please submit your worksheet showing the calculation method
Period
Actual Demand
1
10000
2
12400
3
13250
4
14750
5
15220
6
18500
The choices are
A. 12660
B. 13190
C. 14030
D. 15220
Chapter 2 Solutions
Production and Operations Analysis, Seventh Edition
Ch. 2.4 - Prob. 1PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 2PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 3PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 4PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 5PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 6PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 7PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 8PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 9PCh. 2.6 - Prob. 10P
Ch. 2.6 - Prob. 11PCh. 2.6 - Prob. 12PCh. 2.6 - Prob. 13PCh. 2.6 - Prob. 14PCh. 2.6 - Prob. 15PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 16PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 17PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 18PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 19PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 20PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 21PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 22PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 23PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 24PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 25PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 26PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 27PCh. 2.8 - Prob. 28PCh. 2.8 - Prob. 29PCh. 2.8 - Prob. 30PCh. 2.8 - Prob. 31PCh. 2.8 - Prob. 32PCh. 2.9 - Prob. 33PCh. 2.9 - Prob. 34PCh. 2.9 - Prob. 35PCh. 2.9 - Prob. 36PCh. 2.9 - Prob. 37PCh. 2.10 - Prob. 38PCh. 2.10 - Prob. 42PCh. 2.10 - Prob. 43PCh. 2.10 - Prob. 44PCh. 2.10 - Prob. 45PCh. 2 - Prob. 47APCh. 2 - Prob. 48APCh. 2 - Prob. 49APCh. 2 - Prob. 50APCh. 2 - Prob. 51APCh. 2 - Prob. 52APCh. 2 - Prob. 53APCh. 2 - Prob. 54APCh. 2 - Prob. 55APCh. 2 - Prob. 56APCh. 2 - Prob. 57APCh. 2 - Prob. 58AP
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