What Is the Current Macroeconomic Situation in the Us?

The health of the current U.S. economy appears to be growing gradually. The second quarter real GDP growth was 3.7% and the unemployment rate declined to 5.3%. The U.S Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to raise interest rates in the near future when it sees clear signs of strong economic growth and improvements in the job market.

Although business leaders may not have a crystal ball to help them plan for the future, they do have access to a wide range of Federal Reserve publications that can help identify recent and current trends and what these economists believe will take place in the coming months. Given the lingering effects of the Great Recession of 2008 on the American economy today, identifying the future economic outlook for America using this type of freely available information therefore represents a timely and valuable enterprise. To this end, this paper provides a review of relevant publications to identify the Federal Reserve's current assessment of economic activity and financial markets, its current view about inflation and various monetary tools that have been used to stabilize the economic and prices in recent years. Finally, an analysis of the economic outlook for the next 12- to 18-month period is followed by a summary of the research and important findings in the conclusion.

Eric Rosengren, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, and John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, have both been known as “doves” in their individual monetary policy opinions and votes over the last five years. Since the summer of 2015, there has been a notable change in Rosengren’s rhetoric in the pursuit of normalization to the point where Rosengren is now actively suggesting an increase in interest rates in the very near future in order to promote growth in the economy, and as of the FOMC meeting on September 21st, 2016, was one of three dissenting votes (out of ten) for keeping rates low. Rosengren supports his new change of face with factors that will be discussed at length in this paper such as the pace of growth, the up-sides to higher rates, and the danger lurking in a prolonged low-rate economy. In similar (but not identical) fashion, John Williams is turning to the belief that rate hikes will be necessary sooner, rather than later if the Fed wishes to continue to spur growth in the United States economy, as opposed to letting the economy overheat into recession. Williams supports this point with evidence similar to Rosengren involving the pace of growth, the upside to higher rates, and the danger lurking in a prolonged low-rate economy. Eric Rosengren’s recent flip provides an interesting vantage point on both camps in the Federal Reserve. By comparing and contrasting the rhetoric of Rosengren (a former dove) and Williams

To begin, the article explains the Federal Reserve’s plan to take a careful approach to enacting contractionary monetary policies, policies used to decrease money supply, in the future. Last December the Federal Reserve raised the interest rates after they had been near zero for years to ensure inflation was kept in check and to promote economic growth. It appeared the economy would be in for another increase in the interest rates sometime this year, but the Feds have rethought that strategy. If the Federal Reserve were to continue to raise interest rates it would have short-run and long-run effects on the Money Market, Goods and Services Market, Planned Investment, Phillip Curve, and Aggregated Supply and Demand. These effects are aspects that have to be considered because they express and explain the effects the increase in interest rates has on the economy and explain if the Federal Reserve is enacting the correct policy to achieve their goal.

The last five years have shown that traditional monetary policies predicated on interest rate management by the Federal Reserve no longer deliver the economic growth they were once believed to. Keynesian economics has proved to not be as effective as once thought, which has led to the Federal Reserve choose alternative means to stimulate the economy and indirectly manage exchange rates (Hakkio, 1986). The uncertainty over interest rate polices has fortunately not led to increases in inflation, which has typically been the case in the past (Kopcke, 1988). The current economic conditions and the approaches the Federal Research are taking however are cause for concern, and from a personal standpoint many decisions are being evaluated more precisely.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis showed output in the U.S. increasing at a rate of 2.3% for the second quarter of 2015 (Sharf, 2015). This is a 1.7% increase from the first quarter when real GDP increased 0.6% (Sharf, 2015). Current-dollar GDP decreased 0.2 percent, which is the equivalent of $10.4 billion, in the first quarter of 2015 to $17,693.3 billion (News Release: Gross Domestic Product). The B.E.A. also reports (GDP 2015) that personal consumption has doubled within the first two quarters of 2015 from 1.8% to 3.6%, suggesting that consumer income has also increased alongside GDP.

The Federal Reserves concerns are many; because of the economic diversity of our country. In November 2002, the fed reduced the targeted federal funds rate 50 basis points, to 1.25 percent. The policy easing allowed the Committee to return to an assessment that the risks to its goals were balanced. The Fed has inflation expectations well contained, and the additional monetary stimulus seemed to offer worthwhile insurance against the threat of persistent economic weakness and substantial declines in inflation from already low levels.

Over the past year we have gone through many changes politically, environmentally, and more. The main change occurring today is the Federal Reserve’s control on monetary policy which affects the interest rates and money supply all caused by the buying or selling of government bonds. The Federal Reserve needs to raise interest rates because they have “remained relatively slow by historical standards” (Binyamin Appelbaum, July 7, 2017). However, the inflation rate and rate of growth in GDP have been relatively low, restraining the Fed from raising the rates too high.

The American economy has suffered the deepest and most protracted recession since the Great Depression. The financial crisis that began in the fall of 2008 had enduring effects on economic performance. In the first quarter of 2009, real gross domestic product (real GDP) fell by 6.4 percent. Real GDP fell for four straight quarters, from third quarter 2008 through second quarter 2009. The good news is that we have enjoyed more than three years of uninterrupted economic growth (Real GDP) and falling unemployment since the recession ended in June 2009. Economic growth (real GDP) has averaged less than 2.1% since the recovery began July 2009 and is have slowed to less than 1% in the

Many observers believed that the 27-28 October Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting would be a non-event, largely due to the fact that there was no scheduled press conference after its conclusion. In fact, the press statement revealed some interesting insights into the current line of thinking of FOMC members. Most importantly, it is abundantly clear that the vast majority are still inclined to raise the federal funds target at the 15-16 December policy meeting. I have recently written about rising dissent on the Board of Governors, notably the views of Governor Lael Brainard. It appears that her openly questioning the policy apparatus of Fed Chair Yellen has yet to sway the opinions of other

In this article Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen stated that there is “no fixed timetable” for raising the U.S. interest rates. She also confirmed that rate increases will happen since strong labor market gain continue, which will push inflation above the current central back target. The current labor market has continued a growth trend and employers are adding new jobs each month. Additionally the unemployment rate has been held relatively steady. The chairman also warned that if job gains continue and unemployment drops further the inflation rate could rise, which will subsequently raise interest rates at a faster rate than planned.

The FED decided to carry out its bond purchasing program in August to help prevent deflation (Hauser, 2011). The article could have turned out much differently if the FED did not step up and take action. In addition the FED has the authority to adjust interest rates in accordance with the current economic condition. Currently the FED is willing to curb inflation by adjusting the interest rates at a moment’s notice (Hauser, 2011). The FED’s invisible hand can sometimes help prevent major economic disasters.

On September 18, 2013 the Federal Reserve reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. In addition, the committee agreed to continue its monthly $85 billion purchase of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6.5 percent. Inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored .

The current rate of GDP growth, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, is 2.7% (for Q3), and it was 1.3% in Q2 of this year. This rate reflects relatively slow growth, with challenges remaining in the domestic market and with sluggishness in Europe suppressing exports to that region. The rate of GDP growth is predicted to slow to a decline of 0.5% between Q4 2012 and Q4 2013, the US re-entering recession, according to the Congressional Budget Office's projections. These projections are based on the provisions of the Budget Control Act being enacted, though any observers are doubtful that this will occur.

The European Central Bank (ECB) was the last to embrace quantitative easing, partly due to political constraints. By contrast, the Fed, under former Chairman Bernanke, did not face the same headwind and was prepared invoke three tranches of asset purchases due to elevated economic uncertainty. How times have changed! ECB President Draghi last week announced that an expanded round of quantitative easing could be invoked beyond September 2016 if financial markets sold off further and threatened to undermine the respective outlooks for economic growth and inflation. Forecasts for real GDP growth and consumer prices have already been reduced by the ECB and downside risks have been attached to these estimates. It appears, therefore, that the ECB under President Draghi is more prepared to behave like the Fed under former Chairman Bernanke. The reaction of Eurozone equity markets and the single currency to the ECB President’s announcement was textbook in nature. It appears that the strengthening of the euro versus the dollar in late-August did not please the ECB: President Draghi warned that negative consumer price inflation was likely in the latter months of 2015. Continued appreciation of the euro would only have intensified deflationary pressure. It appears, therefore, that the currency is once again being used as a safety valve. By contrast, the undershooting of US inflation and dollar strength does not appear to have deterred at