What is the appropriate decision if a minimax regret approach is used?
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- APC industries has been experiencing significant growth and has been having difficulty meeting customer demands recently. They are considering three options to address this issue. They can move to a larger facility, add a second shift or use a subcontractor to assist in production. The annual payoff of each option depends on if the current market continues to expand hold s steady or declines. The expected payoff for each combination is shown in the table below Option Expand Steady Decline Move to larger facility 250,000 125,000 -90,000 Add a second shift 175,000 80,000 -45,000 Subcontract 90,000 15,000 -10,000 Which option should APC choose with the Hurwicz criterion with α = 0.5? Using a minimax regret approach, what alternative should she choose? After reading about economic predictions, APC has assigned the probability that the market will be expanded, or be steady or be weak at 20%, 50%, and 30 %. Using expected monetary values, what option should be chosen, and what…Dwayne Whitten, president of Whitten Industries, is considering whether to build a manufacturing plant in north Texas. His decision is summarized in the following table: Alternatives Favorable Market Unfavorable Market Build large plant $400,000 −$300,000 Build small plant $120,000 −$15,000 Don't Build $0 $0 Market Probability 0.40 0.60 a) The correct decision tree for Dwayne is shown in Figure ____ (all payoffs are in thousands). b) To maximize the return, Dwayne's decision should be to ______ . c) For Dwayne, the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) = $___________ (enter your answer as a whole numThe owner of the Party City Toronto Company must decide among building a mega centre store, building 5 new stores, or leasing 10 of their locations to another company. The profit that will result from each alternative will be determined by whether material costs remain stable, increase moderately, or increase significantly. In the payoff table below the estimated profits/losses are given in $thousands. Material Costs Stable Mega Centre Decision New Stores Leasing Determine the best decision using the Maximax decision criterion. 2130 Moderate Increase 1850 840 530 1050 940 O Decision: Mega Centre based on 2470 = max(2470,1850,1040) O Decision: Mega Centre based on 2130 = max(2130,1850,1040) Decision: Stable based on 2130 = max(2130,1050,1040) O Decision: Leasing based on 2820 = max(190,2750,2820) Significant Increase -2470 -150 1040
- MedStar Health is expanding into Virginia. The firm must select one location where it can build a clinic to serve patients. The following table lists the expected profits for clinics in three locations depending on the numbers of patients utilizing the clinic. The probability of high demand is 0.75 and of low demand 0.25. Location Payoff High numbers of Patients Low Numbers of Patients Alexandria Woodbridge Leesburg $1,500,000 $950,000 1,200,000 $600,000 $900,000 $200,000 a. Find the best location for the clinic using the following criterion i. Maximax (Optimistic) ii. Maximin (Pessimistic) iii. Equal likelihood (Laplace) iv. Minimax regret v. Expected value (EMV) b. Cognizant Consulting specializes in the expansion of medical firms. The consultants assert that they can determine whether demand for the medical facility’s services will be high or low at the proposed locations. They have offered to provide their services to MedStar Health for a $100,000 fee.…A landowner is considering a community development project. Even though he realizes that the current market for housing is not very favourable, he believes that there will be an influx of retirees into the area within the next five years. He is trying to decide between two alternatives: (1) building detached homes in a planned retirement community or (2) building a smaller townhouse/condominium complex. Mortgage interest rates will affect his outcomes as shown (in $ millions) in the accompanying payoff table. According to the maximax approach, what should the landowner do? Click the icon to view the payoff table. ..... A. Build townhouses/condominiums B. Build detached homes in a planned retirement community if interest rates go up, otherwise build townhouses/condominiums C. Build detached homes in a planned retirement community D. Build detached homes in a planned retirement community if interest rates go down, otherwise build townhouses/condominiums O E. Build detached homes in a…Fenton and Farrah Friendly, husband-and-wife car dealers, are soon going to open a new dealership. They have three offers: from a foreign compact car company, from a U.S.-producer of full-sized cars, and from a truck company. The success of each type of dealership will depend on how much gasoline is going to be available during the next few years. The profit from each type of dealership, given the availability of gas, is shown in the following payoff table: Gasoline Availability Shortage Surplus Dealership .6 .4 Compact cars $ 300,000 $150,000 Full-sized cars -100,000 600,000 Trucks 120,000 170,000 Determine which type of dealership the couple should purchase.
- Fenton and Farrah Friendly, husband-and-wife car dealers, are soon going to open a new dealership. They have three offers: from a foreign compact car company, from a U.S.- producer of full-sized cars, and from a truck company. The success of each type of dealership will depend on how much gasoline is going to be available during the next few years. The profit from each type of dealership, given the availability of gas, is shown in the following payoff table: Gasoline Avalability Dealership Shortage 0.6 Surplus 0.4 Compact Cars $300,000 $150,000 Full-sized cars -100,000 600,000 Trucks 120,000 170,000 a) Determine which type of dealership the couple should purchase. b) Construct a decision tree for this problem’s decision and indicate the best decision. The Friendlys are considering hiring a petroleum analyst to determine the future availability of gasoline. The analyst will report that either a shortage or a surplus will occur. The probability that…In solving the given problem ,you may refer to the following payoff table: New bridge built No new bridge Alternative location A 1 14 for new warehouse B 2 10 C 4 6 1. Assume the payoffs represent profits. Determine the alternative that would be chosen under each of these decision criteria: A. Maximin B. Maximax C. Laplace 2. Using the information in the payoff table, develop a table of regrets, and then: A. Determine the alternative that would be chosen under minimax regret. B. Determine the expected value of perfect information using the regret table, assuming that the probability of a new bridge being built is 0.60. 3. Using the probabilities of 0.60 for a new bridge and 0.40 for no new bridge, compute the expected value for each alternative in the payoff table , and identify the alternative that would be selected under the expected-value approach. 4.…A manager is trying to decide whether to build a small, medium or large facility. Demand can be low, average or high, with the estimated probabilities being 0.25, 0.40 and 0.35, respectively. A small facility is expected to earn an after-tax net present value of just $18,000 if demand is low. If demand is average, the small facility is expected to earn $75,000; it can be increased to medium size to earn a net present value of $60,000. If demand is high, the small facility is expected to earn $75,000 and can be expanded to medium $60,000 or large to earn $125,000. A medium-sized facility is expected to lose an estimated $25,000 if demand is low and earn $140,000 if demand is average. If demand is high, the medium-sized facility is expected to earn a net present value of $150,000; it can be expanded to a large size for a net payoff of $145,000. If a large facility is build and demand is high, earnings are expected to be $220,000. If demand is average for the large facility, the present…
- If the values (Revenue - Cost) for the option for a retail store to move to a new location associated with the events strong growth and weak growth are $ 200000 and $100000 respectively, calculate the expected value for the option to move to a new location. The probability of strong growth = 55%.A manager is trying to decide whether to build a small, medium or large facility. Demand can be low, average, or hit, with the estimated probabilities being 0.25, 0.40, and 0.35 respectively A small facility is expected to earn an after-tax net present value of just $18,000 if demand is low. If demand is average, the small facility is expected to earn $75,000; it can be increased to medium size to earn a net present value of $60,000. If demand is high, the small facility is expected to earn $75,000 and can be expanded to medium size to earn $60,000 or large to earn $125,000. A medium-size facility is expected to lose an estimated $25,000 if demand is low and earn $140,000 if demand is average. If demand is high, the medium-size facility is expected to earn a net present value of $150,000; it can be expanded to a large size for a net payoff of $145,000. If a large facility is built and demand is high, earnings are expected to be $220,000. If demand is average for the large facility,…A manager is trying to decide whether to build a small, medium or large facility. Demand can be low, average, or hit, with the estimated probabilities being 0.25, 0.40, and 0.35 respectively A small facility is expected to earn an after-tax net present value of just $18,000 if demand is low. If demand is average, the small facility is expected to earn $75,000; it can be increased to medium size to earn a net present value of $60,000. If demand is high, the small facility is expected to earn $75,000 and can be expanded to medium size to earn $60,000 or to large to earn $125,000. A medium-size facility is expected to lose an estimated $25,000 if demand is low and earn $140,000 if demand is average. If demand is high, the medium-size facility is expected to earn a net present value of $150,000; it can be expanded to a large size for a net payoff of $145,000. If a large facility is built and demand is high, earnings are expected to be $220,000. If demand is average for the large facility,…