Concept explainers
a)
To determine: The best choice from the given alternatives using different approaches.
Introduction:
Maximax approach:
Find the best possible payoff for each alternative and choose the alternative that has the “best.”
b)
To determine: The best choice from the given alternatives using different approaches.
Introduction:
Maximin approach:
Find the worst possible payoff for each alternative and choose the alternative that has the “best worst.”
c)
To determine: The best choice from the given alternatives using different approaches.
Introduction:
Laplace:
Determine the average payoff for each alternative and select the alternative with the best average.
d)
To determine: The best choice from the given alternatives using different approaches.
Introduction:
Minimax regret:
Prepare a table of regrets (opportunity losses) for each column, and subtract every payoff from the best payoff in that column. Identify the worst regret for each alternative. Select the alternative with the “best worst.”
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Operations Management
- The new business venture, Best-In-World, has been manufacturing technology devices for over 2020 years and is considering adding a new technology device to its music line. They have an established reputation for building quality devices, but they are rather novice in the music industry. The Chief Innovation and Design Officer, Julie Naugle-Hall, is tasked with hiring a marketing firm to conduct a survey to determine the feasibility and demand for their new music device. The follow decision table illustrates the potential payoffs for a high demand, moderate demand and low demand for the new music device. The decision will be whether to start production on this new device in small scale, large scale or not at all.Decision Table State of Nature Alternatives High Demand Moderate Demand Low Demand Small-scale production 1,000,0001,000,000 300,000300,000 −200,000-200,000 Large-scale production 1,600,0001,600,000 700,000700,000 −1,000,000-1,000,000 No production 00 00 00…arrow_forwardSuppose you plan to buy a new car and wish to pick a best one from a list of candidate models, shown in Table 1. To make this decision, you have designated a specialist to rate these models for you. In Table 2, each model has been given a score from 1 (the least desired) to 10 (the most desired) according to respective criteria. The weight of each criterion, representing its importance, is given in the bottom row of Table 1. Please calculate the overall score for each car model and find out the best alternative with the highest overall score. Table 1 Alternatives and Criteria of Selecting Car Price Fuel Efficiency Maintenance Access Interior Aesthetics Overall Score 1. Toyota Camry 8 8 7 9 2. Hyundai Elantra 9 8 5 8 3.Skoda Octavia 7 7 7 8 4.VW Passat 7 7 8 7 5.Citroen C4 7 8 7 9 Weights 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 China Eastern Airlines…arrow_forwardA firm is weighing three capacity alternatives: small, medium, and large job shop.Whatever capacity choice is made, the market for the firm’s product can be “moderate”or “strong.” The probability of moderate acceptance is estimated to be 40%; strongacceptance has a probability of 60%. The payoffs are as follows. Small job shop,moderate market = $24,000; Small job shop, strong market = $54,000. Medium job shop,moderate market = $20,000; medium job shop, strong market = $64,000.Large job shop,moderate market = -$2,000; large job shop, strong market = $96,000. Which capacitychoice should the firm make?arrow_forward
- A firm plans to begin production of a new small appliance. The manager must decide whether to purchase the motors for the appliance from a vendor at $7 each or to produce them in-house. Either of two processes could be used for in-house production; Process A would have an annual fixed cost of $180,000 and a variable cost of $6 per unit, and Process B would have an annual fixed cost of $190,000 and a variable cost of $5 per unit. Determine the range of annual volume for which each of the alternatives would be best.arrow_forwardEmerson Electric is considering the purchase of equipment that will allow the company to manufacture a new line of wireless devices for home appliance control. The first cost will be $80,000 and the life estimated is 6 years with a salvage value of $10,000. Three different salespeople have provided estimates regarding the added revenue the equipment will generate. Salespersons 1,2, and 3 have made estimates of $10,000 , $16,000 , and $18,000 per year respectively if the Companys MARR is 8% per year find the PW of each salespersons estimates.arrow_forwardAt a decision point in a decision tree, which machine would you select when trying to maximize payoff when the anticipated benefit of selecting machine A is $45,000 with a probability of 90%; the expected benefit of selecting machine B is $80,000 with a probability of 50% and the expected benefit of selecting machine C is $60,000 with a probability of 75%? Machine A Machine B O Machine C O You would be indifferent between machines A and Barrow_forward
- A builder has located a piece of property that she would like to buy and eventually build on. The land is currently zoned for four homes per acre, but she is planning to request new zoning. What she builds depends on the approval of zoning requests and your analysis of this problem to advise her. With her input and your help, the decision process has been reduced to the following costs, alternatives, and probabilities: Cost of land: $5 million. Probability of rezoning: 0.80. If the land is rezoned, there will be additional costs for new roads, lighting, and…arrow_forwardA builder has located a piece of property that she would like to buy and eventually build on. The land is currently zoned for four homes per acre, but she is planning to request new zoning. What she builds depends on approval of zoning requests and your analysis of this problem to advise her. With her input and your help, the decision process has been reduced to the following costs, alternatives, and probabilities: Cost of land: $2 million. Probability of rezoning: 0.60. If the land is rezoned, there will be additional costs for new roads, lighting, and so on of $1 million. If the land is rezoned, the contractor must decide whether to build a shopping center or 1,500 apartments that the tentative plan shows would be possible. If she builds a shopping center, there is a 70 percent chance that she can sell the shopping center to a large department store chain for $4 million over her construction cost, which excludes the land; and there is a 30 percent chance that she can sell it to an…arrow_forwardAdam has been offered to open up a Service station. However, the size of the establishment will be based on his decision. The annual return and investment required will be based on both size and market condition. To help out in the decision making, Adam has done the analysis and the expected profit/loss are shown in the table: What is the maximax,maximin and equally likely decision? Develop a decision treearrow_forward
- A builder has located a piece of property that she would like to buy and eventually build on. The land is currently zoned for four homes per acre, but she is planning to request new zoning. What she builds depends on approval of zoning requests and your analysis of this problem to advise her. With her input and your help, the decision process has been reduced to the following costs, alternatives, and probabilities: Cost of land: $3 million. Probability of rezoning: 0.50. If the land is rezoned, there will be additional costs for new roads, lighting, and so on, of $1 million. If the land is rezoned, the contractor must decide whether to build a shopping center or 1,400 apartments that the tentative plan shows would be possible. If she builds a shopping center, there is a 50 percent chance that she can sell the shopping center to a large department store chain for $6 million over her construction cost, which excludes the land; and there is a 50 percent chance that she can sell it…arrow_forwardA builder has located a piece of property that she would like to buy and eventually build on. The land is currently zoned for four homes per acre, but she is planning to request new zoning. What she builds depends on approval of zoning requests and your analysis of this problem to advise her. With her input and your help, the decision process has been reduced to the following costs, alternatives, and probabilities: Cost of land: $3 million. Probability of rezoning: 0.30. If the land is rezoned, there will be additional costs for new roads, lighting, and so on, of $1 million. If the land is rezoned, the contractor must decide whether to build a shopping center or 1,100 apartments that the tentative plan shows would be possible. If she builds a shopping center, there is a 70 percent chance that she can sell the shopping center to a large department store chain for $4 million over her construction cost, which excludes the land; and there is a 30 percent chance that she can sell it to an…arrow_forwardMyra is a project manager who is evaluating Rob's Rubbish Removal Service in the Twin Cities. They have two locations: North and South. 47% of clients are in the North. Of these 78% are satisfied. In the South, 83% are satisfied with their services. Please show your work.a) Draw a decision tree for this situationb) What percentage of the people are satisfied and came from the North?c) What percentage of the people are satisfied and came from the South?d) What percentage of the people are unsatisfied with their service for North and South combined?arrow_forward
- Practical Management ScienceOperations ManagementISBN:9781337406659Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.Publisher:Cengage,